The Market Indicator Flashing ‘Recession’

Why the U.S. Treasury yield curve inverted and what it means.

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ABOUT

This episode is sponsored by Nexo.io, Arculus and FTX US.

Since 1955, every U.S. recession has been preceded by the inversion of the U.S. Treasury yield curve, meaning that short-dated notes had higher yields than long-dated bonds. Only one time during that period was this a false indicator. On today’s episode, NLW explores yesterday’s yield curve inversion and the market’s interpretation of what they think it means.

“The Breakdown” is written, produced by and features Nathaniel Whittemore aka NLW, with editing by Rob Mitchell, research by Scott Hill and additional production support by Eleanor Pahl. Adam B. Levine is our executive producer and our theme music is “Countdown” by Neon Beach. The music you heard today behind our sponsor is “I Don't Know How To Explain It” by Aaron Sprinkle. Image credit: Malte Mueller/Getty Images, modified by CoinDesk. Join the discussion at discord.gg/VrKRrfKCz8.

HOST

Nathaniel Whittemore

NLW is an independent strategy and communications consultant for leading crypto companies as well as host of The Breakdown – the fastest-growing podcast in crypto. Whittemore has been a VC with Learn Capital, was on the founding team of Change.org, and founded a program design center at his alma mater Northwestern University that helped inspire the largest donation in the school’s history.