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March Jobs Report a 'Heads I Win, Tails You Lose' Moment for Bitcoin Bulls
Bitcoin's price stability above March lows in the wake of Trump tariffs suggests seller fatigue.
What to know:
- President Trump's announcement of tariffs on 180 nations has led markets to anticipate recession risks and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts.
- Strong March NFP could be brushed off as backward-looking while a weak report could add to recession fears.
- Bitcoin's price stability above March lows suggests seller fatigue, with implied volatility indicating a potential 3.4% price swing in the next 24 hours.
As the pivotal U.S. nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report for March approaches, bitcoin (BTC) bulls find themselves in a situation reminiscent of the character Two-Face (Harvey Dent) from the movie "The Dark Knight," who flips coins to make decisions, confident of controlling the fate irrespective of the outcome.
It's a classic case of "heads I win, tails you lose," which means that bitcoin bulls will likely come out on top after the impending jobs report, regardless of whether the data reveals labor market strength or weakness.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW
This situation arises from President Donald Trump's Wednesday announcement of sweeping tariffs affecting 180 nations, prompting forward-looking markets to price in recession risks and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Consequently, stronger-than-expected jobs data, which typically strengthens the dollar and pressures risk assets like BTC, may be dismissed as outdated, overlooking the recent developments resulting from Trump's policies. Therefore, any dip in BTC following a potentially hot NFP report could be swiftly reversed, leading to gains.
On the other hand, weak data would only add to recession fears and bolster Fed rate cut bets, supporting increased risk-taking in financial markets.
At press time, bitcoin changed hands at $84,190, having hit lows below $82,000 Thursday, per CoinDesk data. The fact that prices have stayed well above the $77,000 March low despite peak tariff uncertainty indicates seller fatigue and potential for a price rise.
Volmex's bitcoin one-day implied volatility index stood at an annualized 65%, indicating an expected price swing of 3.4% in the next 24 hours.
The jobs data is due at 12:30 UTC. According to FactSet, the median estimate for total nonfarm payroll employment in March is 130,000, down from February's 151,000 tally. The jobless rate is forecast to have risen to 4.2% from 4.1%.
Ahead of the data release, rates traders are pricing 100 basis points of Fed rate cuts this year, with the first move expected to happen in June, according to the CME's FedWatch tool.
Omkar Godbole
Omkar Godbole is a Co-Managing Editor on CoinDesk's Markets team based in Mumbai, holds a masters degree in Finance and a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) member. Omkar previously worked at FXStreet, writing research on currency markets and as fundamental analyst at currency and commodities desk at Mumbai-based brokerage houses. Omkar holds small amounts of bitcoin, ether, BitTorrent, tron and dot.
