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Bitcoin Oversold Bounce Faces Resistance at $40K-$43K
Long-term momentum remains very weak and BTC is at a critical point.
Updated May 11, 2023, 5:13 p.m. Published Jan 26, 2022, 7:33 p.m.
Bitcoin (BTC) rose from deeply oversold levels over the past two days, indicating renewed buying after a sharp sell-off. The cryptocurrency faces initial resistance at $40,000-$43,000, which could stall the current price bounce.
BTC was trading around $38,000 at press time and is up 4% over the past 24 hours.
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The relative strength index (RSI) on the daily chart is rising from extreme oversold levels, which could keep buyers active this week. On the weekly chart, the RSI is approaching oversold territory, similar to July 2021, which preceded a strong price rally.
Still, momentum signals remain very weak, indicating limited upside from here. That means buyers will need to make a decisive move above $40,000 to signal a recovery phase.
For now, the downtrend from November remains intact with immediate support at $37,000 and lower support at $30,000.
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CoinDesk Data's monthly Exchange Review captures the key developments within the cryptocurrency exchange market. The report includes analyses that relate to exchange volumes, crypto derivatives trading, market segmentation by fees, fiat trading, and more.
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Trading activity softened in March as market uncertainty grew amid escalating tariff tensions between the U.S. and global trading partners. Centralized exchanges recorded their lowest combined trading volume since October, declining 6.24% to $6.79tn. This marked the third consecutive monthly decline across both market segments, with spot trading volume falling 14.1% to $1.98tn and derivatives trading slipping 2.56% to $4.81tn.
- Trading Volumes Decline for Third Consecutive Month: Combined spot and derivatives trading volume on centralized exchanges fell by 6.24% to $6.79tn in March 2025, reaching the lowest level since October. Both spot and derivatives markets recorded their third consecutive monthly decline, falling 14.1% and 2.56% to $1.98tn and $4.81tn respectively.
- Institutional Crypto Trading Volume on CME Falls 23.5%: In March, total derivatives trading volume on the CME exchange fell by 23.5% to $175bn, the lowest monthly volume since October 2024. CME's market share among derivatives exchanges dropped from 4.63% to 3.64%, suggesting declining institutional interest amid current macroeconomic conditions.
- Bybit Spot Market Share Slides in March: Spot trading volume on Bybit fell by 52.1% to $81.1bn in March, coinciding with decreased trading activity following the hack of the exchange's cold wallets in February. Bybit's spot market share dropped from 7.35% to 4.10%, its lowest since July 2023.
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