Bitcoin Slips to Nearly $20K, Citi Sees 50% Chance of Recession
Premarket futures for U.S. indexes fell, while Asian equities took a hit on Wednesday.

Prices dropped to just over $19,900 at press time, a 4% drop in the past 24 hours and a 7% slide over the past week. The decline came as analysts at Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs warned on Tuesday that “recession risks were “not fully priced in."
“The bear market will not be over until recession arrives or the risk of one is extinguished,” Morgan Stanley said in a note. Meanwhile, Goldman analysts said stock traders were pricing in a mild recession, “leaving them exposed to a further deterioration in expectations.”

Separately, Citibank pegged the probability of the global economy seeing a recession in the near future at nearly 50% as central banks “tighten monetary policy and demand for goods weakens.”
Supply shocks for basic necessities could push up prices and eventually cause an economic slowdown, Citi economists said. The team now sees the world economy growing 3% this year and 2.8% in 2023, according to Bloomberg.
Since Wednesday’s open, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index has fallen 2.29%, Shanghai Composite has dropped 1.20%, and India’s Sensex has slid 1.29%. In Europe, Germany’s DAX plunged 2.9%, while the stock index Stoxx 600 dropped 1.56%.
Premarket futures on U.S. equities fell during European morning hours. Futures on the technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 dropped 1.70%, while S&P 500 futures lost 1.56%. Crude oil (West Texas Intermediate) futures fell 5%.
Bitcoin has tracked broader markets closely over the past few months, meaning a further slide in the broader markets could see bitcoin falling further over the coming weeks as traditional banks sound alarms on the state of the overall global economy.
Crypto market observers say a long-term recovery in bitcoin prices would take place only when global sentiment turns position and with signs of expansion.
“It’s foolish to forgo the wider macro context in which crypto and finance operate,” Andrey Diyakonov, chief commercial officer at Choise, said in a Telegram message earlier this week.
“Commodities market indicators and [European Union] bonds market meltdown spell out worrying predictions for the world economy," he said.
Diyakono also said recent troubles seen at the crypto lender Celsius Network and crypto hedge fund Three Arrows Capital have added to "crypto industry uncertainty,” and that the market hasn’t “hit the bottom yet.”
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Exchange Review - March 2025

CoinDesk Data's monthly Exchange Review captures the key developments within the cryptocurrency exchange market. The report includes analyses that relate to exchange volumes, crypto derivatives trading, market segmentation by fees, fiat trading, and more.
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Trading activity softened in March as market uncertainty grew amid escalating tariff tensions between the U.S. and global trading partners. Centralized exchanges recorded their lowest combined trading volume since October, declining 6.24% to $6.79tn. This marked the third consecutive monthly decline across both market segments, with spot trading volume falling 14.1% to $1.98tn and derivatives trading slipping 2.56% to $4.81tn.
- Trading Volumes Decline for Third Consecutive Month: Combined spot and derivatives trading volume on centralized exchanges fell by 6.24% to $6.79tn in March 2025, reaching the lowest level since October. Both spot and derivatives markets recorded their third consecutive monthly decline, falling 14.1% and 2.56% to $1.98tn and $4.81tn respectively.
- Institutional Crypto Trading Volume on CME Falls 23.5%: In March, total derivatives trading volume on the CME exchange fell by 23.5% to $175bn, the lowest monthly volume since October 2024. CME's market share among derivatives exchanges dropped from 4.63% to 3.64%, suggesting declining institutional interest amid current macroeconomic conditions.
- Bybit Spot Market Share Slides in March: Spot trading volume on Bybit fell by 52.1% to $81.1bn in March, coinciding with decreased trading activity following the hack of the exchange's cold wallets in February. Bybit's spot market share dropped from 7.35% to 4.10%, its lowest since July 2023.
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- Ethena's USDe becomes fifth stablecoin to surpass $10 billion market cap in just 609 days, while Tether's dominance continues to slip.