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Crypto Prices Under Pressure From Global Rise in Yields

A sharp gain in interest rates didn't dent crypto's price rally through late 2024, but that may not be the case anymore.

Jan 8, 2025, 3:42 p.m.
UK30Year Yield (TradingView)
UK30Year Yield (TradingView)

What to know:

  • Government bond yields continue to rise, most notably in the U.K., where the 30-year Gilt yield is at the highest since 1998.
  • Rising rates for months haven't appeared to be holding back crypto prices, but they have taken notice of late.
  • An exception to the global rate action is China, where yields are falling on deflationary conditions.

Crypto markets had been on a nice bull run the the final quarter of 2024, but the trend of rising government bond yields across the globe appears to have become to strong to ignore.

Considered the benchmark that sets the standard across the world, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has risen to 4.70% as of Wednesday, nearing a mulit-year high and now up more than 100 basis points increase since the Federal Reserve first cut its fed funds rate in September.

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Fed Funds Rate vs US10Y (TradingView)
Fed Funds Rate vs US10Y (TradingView)


The action in the U.K. has been even more extreme, with the 30-year Gilt yield on Wednesday rising to 5.35%, its highest level since 1998. It's now ahead by 105 basis points since the Fed's first rate cut in September.

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Large jumps in interest rates aren't limited to the U.S. and U.K., as Germany, Italy and Japan — to name three — have experienced similar action. Japan's 10-year JGB yield, in fact, has risen to 1.18% — a relatively tiny number, but its highest level in nearly 15 years.

Rising yields through much of the last several months didn't appear to impede crypto price action, where bitcoin and a number of other digital assets rose to record or multi-year highs in early-mid December. The price action since is a different story, with bitcoin — for instance — down more than 10% from its record above $108,000 set just three weeks ago and several other majors lower by even larger amounts.

There's always an exception and this time around it's China, where yields are falling sharply on deflation worries. According to an X post by The Kobeissi Letter, China has been experiencing its longest period of deflation since 1999.

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Exchange Review - March 2025

Exchange Review March 2025

CoinDesk Data's monthly Exchange Review captures the key developments within the cryptocurrency exchange market. The report includes analyses that relate to exchange volumes, crypto derivatives trading, market segmentation by fees, fiat trading, and more.

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Trading activity softened in March as market uncertainty grew amid escalating tariff tensions between the U.S. and global trading partners. Centralized exchanges recorded their lowest combined trading volume since October, declining 6.24% to $6.79tn. This marked the third consecutive monthly decline across both market segments, with spot trading volume falling 14.1% to $1.98tn and derivatives trading slipping 2.56% to $4.81tn.

  • Trading Volumes Decline for Third Consecutive Month: Combined spot and derivatives trading volume on centralized exchanges fell by 6.24% to $6.79tn in March 2025, reaching the lowest level since October. Both spot and derivatives markets recorded their third consecutive monthly decline, falling 14.1% and 2.56% to $1.98tn and $4.81tn respectively.
  • Institutional Crypto Trading Volume on CME Falls 23.5%: In March, total derivatives trading volume on the CME exchange fell by 23.5% to $175bn, the lowest monthly volume since October 2024. CME's market share among derivatives exchanges dropped from 4.63% to 3.64%, suggesting declining institutional interest amid current macroeconomic conditions. 
  • Bybit Spot Market Share Slides in March: Spot trading volume on Bybit fell by 52.1% to $81.1bn in March, coinciding with decreased trading activity following the hack of the exchange's cold wallets in February. Bybit's spot market share dropped from 7.35% to 4.10%, its lowest since July 2023.

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