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Bitcoin Technical Indicator Suggests Low Probability of ‘Santa Rally’
A widely tracked technical indicator has flipped bearish, denting hopes of an end-of-year rally.
Updated May 11, 2023, 4:38 p.m. Published Dec 7, 2021, 10:16 p.m.
Bitcoin may not be able to build on the relief rally as it heads into the end of the year, a key technical indicator that’s flipped bearish amid heightened macro risks indicates.
- “The weekly MACD is on a ‘sell’ signal for the first time since April, increasing risk into year end,” Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner of Fairlead Strategies, said in a weekly research note shared with CoinDesk on Monday. There is room for a further sell-off to a point where the asset starts looking oversold in the intermediate term, she wrote.
- The MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram is a technical indicator used to identify trend reversals and trend strength.
- The indicator’s dip into negative territory implies a bullish-to-bearish trend change. Deeper bars below the zero line indicate strengthening of bearish momentum.
- The previous bearish crossover confirmed in late April was followed by consecutive weekly losses of more than 10% that saw the price of bitcoin drop to $30,000 from $58,000.
- While bitcoin has bounced almost 20% from Saturday’s low of under $43,000, the cryptocurrency has yet to retake the bullish trendline from July lows breached last week.
- According to Stockton, the bounce could be fleeting with upside likely to be capped around resistance at $55,000. Lingering Fed jitters, Omicron fears and China property market concerns indicate limited upside in the short term.
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Exchange Review - March 2025
CoinDesk Data's monthly Exchange Review captures the key developments within the cryptocurrency exchange market. The report includes analyses that relate to exchange volumes, crypto derivatives trading, market segmentation by fees, fiat trading, and more.
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Trading activity softened in March as market uncertainty grew amid escalating tariff tensions between the U.S. and global trading partners. Centralized exchanges recorded their lowest combined trading volume since October, declining 6.24% to $6.79tn. This marked the third consecutive monthly decline across both market segments, with spot trading volume falling 14.1% to $1.98tn and derivatives trading slipping 2.56% to $4.81tn.
- Trading Volumes Decline for Third Consecutive Month: Combined spot and derivatives trading volume on centralized exchanges fell by 6.24% to $6.79tn in March 2025, reaching the lowest level since October. Both spot and derivatives markets recorded their third consecutive monthly decline, falling 14.1% and 2.56% to $1.98tn and $4.81tn respectively.
- Institutional Crypto Trading Volume on CME Falls 23.5%: In March, total derivatives trading volume on the CME exchange fell by 23.5% to $175bn, the lowest monthly volume since October 2024. CME's market share among derivatives exchanges dropped from 4.63% to 3.64%, suggesting declining institutional interest amid current macroeconomic conditions.
- Bybit Spot Market Share Slides in March: Spot trading volume on Bybit fell by 52.1% to $81.1bn in March, coinciding with decreased trading activity following the hack of the exchange's cold wallets in February. Bybit's spot market share dropped from 7.35% to 4.10%, its lowest since July 2023.
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