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First Mover Asia: Bitcoin Slips Back to $26.3K in Weekend Trading as Investors Weigh Potential Interest Rate Decisions

The largest crypto by market cap benefited from last week's pause in interest rate hikes, but a market analyst suggests that cuts may be necessary for prices to rise significantly in the future. ALSO: Indonesia updates its list of digital assets approved for trading in the country.

Updated Apr 14, 2024, 10:20 p.m. Published Jun 19, 2023, 1:26 a.m.
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Good morning. Here’s what’s happening:

Prices: BitBull Capital's Joe DiPasquale says that a rate hike pause has helped the market, but rate cuts are what's needed to stop it from struggling in the future.

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Insights: Indonesia updates its list of digital assets approved for trading in the country. Is its motivation to increase tax revenues?

Prices

CoinDesk Market Index (CMI) 1,108 −5.5 ▼ 0.5% $26,366 −144.8 ▼ 0.5% $1,724 −2.9 ▼ 0.2% S&P 500 4,409.59 −16.3 ▼ 0.4% Gold $1,969 +10.9 ▲ 0.6% Nikkei 225 33,706.08 +220.6 ▲ 0.7% BTC/ETH prices per CoinDesk Indices, as of 7 a.m. ET (11 a.m. UTC)CoinDesk Market Index (CMI) 1,108 −5.5 ▼ 0.5% $26,366 −144.8 ▼ 0.5% $1,724 −2.9 ▼ 0.2% S&P 500 4,409.59 −16.3 ▼ 0.4% Gold $1,969 +10.9 ▲ 0.6% Nikkei 225 33,706.08 +220.6 ▲ 0.7% BTC/ETH prices per CoinDesk Indices, as of 7 a.m. ET (11 a.m. UTC)

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Is a Rate Hike Pause Enough for a Rally?

Bitcoin is beginning the trading week in Asia down 0.5% to $26,366, while ether is down 0.2% to $1,724.

The trading week was fairly flat for the two largest digital assets, as during the past seven days, bitcoin was up 1.6% while ether was down 1.7%. The CoinDesk Market Index, a measure of crypto markets performance, was slightly in the red.

“With Fed having left interest rates unchanged, the environment appears supportive for crypto assets to start rallying again,” Joe DiPasquale, the CEO of crypto fund manager BitBull Capital, said in a note to CoinDesk. “However, the Fed went ahead to add that rate cuts were not on the horizon in the near-term, which saw the market struggling.”

Bitcoin and majors have held relatively well, says DiPasquale, arguing that this is a favorable accumulation opportunity for the mid to long-term.

“For now, however, all eyes are going to be on Bitcoin, especially as its dominance has been on the rise due to selling pressure in altcoins,” he said. “As long as the market leader maintains the range between $20k - $22k, bulls shouldn’t be overly concerned.”

Biggest Gainers

Asset Ticker Returns DACS Sector Shiba Inu SHIB +3.5% Currency XRP XRP +1.5% Currency Polkadot DOT +0.3% Smart Contract Platform

Biggest Losers

Asset Ticker Returns DACS Sector Cosmos ATOM −3.8% Smart Contract Platform Loopring LRC −2.7% Smart Contract Platform Terra LUNA −2.6% Smart Contract Platform

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Insights

Indonesia’s Approved List of Crypto Tokens Has Plenty of Junk – and Possible Securities

One of the stories that was missed during the last week was an updated list from the Indonesian Commodities Bureau (BAPPEBTI) that shows which digital assets are approved for trading in the country.

This isn’t the first time the regulator has done this. Last September, the regulator published its initial list, and now it's much more expansive.

But it's interesting now because of the timing.

So many of the tokens on the list would be considered securities in the U.S. Tokens named by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as securities, like , , and are on there. Tokens that wouldn’t pass Hong Kong’s quality test of high liquidity and a 12-month track record are on there.

Perhaps the message the regulator wanted to telegraph is that Indonesia is open to a wide variety of crypto trading – it just wants the capital gains tax from it.

It gets that sought-after tax by taking a light touch on the quality of trading by allowing quantity. Lots of Hong Kongers were burned on the collapse of FTX, which is why the regulator there has an eye on quality control. Indonesia is more set on capturing tax revenue as its middle class grows, something it has had trouble doing with its large informal economy.

The concerns are just different in Indonesia. There are also plenty of tokens on the list that wouldn’t cut it in Thailand, like PEPE and Floki – where the regulator has banned meme tokens. There’s not a demand for a flight to quality with regulated crypto in this country.

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But isn't that a core tenant of a free-market economy? Why is the government in the best position to pick your crypto?

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What to know:

Trading activity softened in March as market uncertainty grew amid escalating tariff tensions between the U.S. and global trading partners. Centralized exchanges recorded their lowest combined trading volume since October, declining 6.24% to $6.79tn. This marked the third consecutive monthly decline across both market segments, with spot trading volume falling 14.1% to $1.98tn and derivatives trading slipping 2.56% to $4.81tn.

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  • Institutional Crypto Trading Volume on CME Falls 23.5%: In March, total derivatives trading volume on the CME exchange fell by 23.5% to $175bn, the lowest monthly volume since October 2024. CME's market share among derivatives exchanges dropped from 4.63% to 3.64%, suggesting declining institutional interest amid current macroeconomic conditions. 
  • Bybit Spot Market Share Slides in March: Spot trading volume on Bybit fell by 52.1% to $81.1bn in March, coinciding with decreased trading activity following the hack of the exchange's cold wallets in February. Bybit's spot market share dropped from 7.35% to 4.10%, its lowest since July 2023.

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