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Ether Could Hit $4,000 With Likely Spot ETH ETF Approval in May: Standard Chartered
The British bank expects the SEC will treat spot ether ETF applications similarly to bitcoin ETFs and anticipates approvals on May 23.
Updated Mar 8, 2024, 8:42 p.m. Published Jan 30, 2024, 5:36 p.m.
Ether , the second-largest cryptocurrency by market value, could rise nearly 70% from current levels and hit $4,000 by May as applications for spot-based exchange-traded funds (ETF) will likely win regulatory approval in the U.S., Standard Chartered Bank said in a report on Tuesday.
Led by research head Geoff Kendrick, the StanChart analysts expect that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) – as it did with Bitcoin – will delay decisions on spot ETF applications until eventually giving a green light on the first final deadline. This puts May 23 as provisional day for an approval, the date of final deadlines for applications by asset managers VanEck and Ark/21Shares.
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The market currently underestimates the odds of an approval, according to the report, but the bank sees "no fundamental reason" for the SEC to treat ETH differently than bitcoin. It highlighted that ETH futures are also listed on the regulated Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and the SEC did not include ETH among the 67 cryptocurrencies the agency claims to be securities during its legal fight against Ripple.
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"Heading into the expected approval date on May 23, we expect ETH prices to track, or outperform, bitcoin during the comparable period," wrote Kendrick and team.
BTC surged 85% from around $25,000 in mid-June – when asset management giant BlackRock filed for an ETF – to roughly $47,000 when the spot ETFs won approval on January 10.
The report also said that ETH would face less selling pressure after a potential ETF approval than BTC, because the Grayscale Ethereum Fund (ETHE) has a smaller market share of ether market capitalization than the Grayscale Bitcoin Fund (GBTC), with even less shares held by the FTX bankruptcy estate.
Read more: FTX Sold About $1B of Grayscale's Bitcoin ETF, Explaining Much of Outflow
Bitcoin tumbled to as low as $38,500 last week from a $49,000 high on January 11 when BTC ETFs started trading, with market observers pointing to GBTC fire-sales with some $5 billion in outflows since its conversion into an ETF.
The StanChart report also added that the first type of ether ETFs in the U.S. will likely track spot ETH price and not include staking rewards.
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Exchange Review - March 2025
CoinDesk Data's monthly Exchange Review captures the key developments within the cryptocurrency exchange market. The report includes analyses that relate to exchange volumes, crypto derivatives trading, market segmentation by fees, fiat trading, and more.
What to know:
Trading activity softened in March as market uncertainty grew amid escalating tariff tensions between the U.S. and global trading partners. Centralized exchanges recorded their lowest combined trading volume since October, declining 6.24% to $6.79tn. This marked the third consecutive monthly decline across both market segments, with spot trading volume falling 14.1% to $1.98tn and derivatives trading slipping 2.56% to $4.81tn.
- Trading Volumes Decline for Third Consecutive Month: Combined spot and derivatives trading volume on centralized exchanges fell by 6.24% to $6.79tn in March 2025, reaching the lowest level since October. Both spot and derivatives markets recorded their third consecutive monthly decline, falling 14.1% and 2.56% to $1.98tn and $4.81tn respectively.
- Institutional Crypto Trading Volume on CME Falls 23.5%: In March, total derivatives trading volume on the CME exchange fell by 23.5% to $175bn, the lowest monthly volume since October 2024. CME's market share among derivatives exchanges dropped from 4.63% to 3.64%, suggesting declining institutional interest amid current macroeconomic conditions.
- Bybit Spot Market Share Slides in March: Spot trading volume on Bybit fell by 52.1% to $81.1bn in March, coinciding with decreased trading activity following the hack of the exchange's cold wallets in February. Bybit's spot market share dropped from 7.35% to 4.10%, its lowest since July 2023.
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What to know:
- Ethena's USDe becomes fifth stablecoin to surpass $10 billion market cap in just 609 days, while Tether's dominance continues to slip.
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