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Bitcoin Price Tops $80K as Futures Premium Soars and $1.6B in Open Options Bet Hints Big Swings

Futures premiums soar, indicating a bias for bullish bets.

Updated Nov 10, 2024, 6:16 p.m. Published Nov 10, 2024, 5:55 a.m.
(Delphine Ducaruge /Unsplash)
(Delphine Ducaruge /Unsplash)
  • BTC topped $80,000 during the North American hours.
  • Futures premiums soar, indicating a bias for bullish bets.
  • The popularity of the $80,000 call on Deribit points to potential dealer hedging around the key level.

Bitcoin rose past $80,000 as traders scrambled to add bullish exposure in derivatives linked to the leading cryptocurrency.

BTC set a new high of $80,095, taking the cumulative weekly gain to 15%, the highest since February, CoinDesk data show. Most gains have happened since Donald Trump won the U.S. election held Thursday, raising hopes of regulatory clarity for the digital assets industry.

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The annualized rolling premium in three-month bitcoin futures listed on prominent exchanges Binance and Deribit has surged alongside the price, topping 14% for the first time since June, according to data source Velo. The so-called futures basis on the CME rose past 10% on Friday.

광고

The uptick in the premium reflects a bias for bullish bets and may entice carry traders looking to profit from price discrepancies between the two markets.

Elsewhere, open interest in the $80,000 strike BTC call, offering an asymmetric upside potential to buyers beyond the said level, increased above $1.6 billion, according to data source Deribit. Traders have been piling into the $80,000 call since before the U.S. election, anticipating a breakout before the end of year-end.

BTC options open interest distribution. (Deribit)
BTC options open interest distribution. (Deribit)

Data tracked by Amberdata show the $80,000 strike has the most negative gamma and as such volatility could increase sharply once prices reach that level.

Holding negative gamma means holding a net short exposure at a specific level. Concentration of negative gamma at $80,000 means dealers or entities tasked with providing liquidity to order books could buy the potential breakout above $80,000, adding to bullish volatility in the market.

Deribit: Bitcoin options gamma. (Amberdata)
Deribit: Bitcoin options gamma. (Amberdata)

14:24 UTC: Updates latest prices in the title and the text.

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Trading activity softened in March as market uncertainty grew amid escalating tariff tensions between the U.S. and global trading partners. Centralized exchanges recorded their lowest combined trading volume since October, declining 6.24% to $6.79tn. This marked the third consecutive monthly decline across both market segments, with spot trading volume falling 14.1% to $1.98tn and derivatives trading slipping 2.56% to $4.81tn.

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  • Institutional Crypto Trading Volume on CME Falls 23.5%: In March, total derivatives trading volume on the CME exchange fell by 23.5% to $175bn, the lowest monthly volume since October 2024. CME's market share among derivatives exchanges dropped from 4.63% to 3.64%, suggesting declining institutional interest amid current macroeconomic conditions. 
  • Bybit Spot Market Share Slides in March: Spot trading volume on Bybit fell by 52.1% to $81.1bn in March, coinciding with decreased trading activity following the hack of the exchange's cold wallets in February. Bybit's spot market share dropped from 7.35% to 4.10%, its lowest since July 2023.

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