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Bitcoin's Coinbase Premium Indicator Shows Overseas BTC Buyers Taking the Lead Ahead of CPI Release

BTC buyers over Binance seem to be leading the BTC price action ahead of the CPI release.

Updated Feb 12, 2025, 8:07 a.m. Published Feb 12, 2025, 8:04 a.m.
Coinbase bitcoin premium index. (Coinglass)
Coinbase bitcoin premium index. (Coinglass)

What to know:

  • BTC's Coinbase premium indicator tracked by Coinglass has flipped negative for the first time since the Aug. 3 price crash.
  • It's a sign that traders over the Nasdaq-listed exchange have turned cautious ahead fo the CPI release.

Bitcoin's (BTC) Coinbase premium indicator, which measures the spread between BTC's dollar-denominated price on the Coinbase exchange and tether-denominated price on Binance, has flipped negative for the first time since the Feb. 3 crash, according to data source Coinglass.

It's a sign that traders over the Nasdaq-listed exchange have turned cautious ahead of Wednesday's U.S. CPI release, and their offshore counterparts have led the price recovery from overnight lows near $94,900 to $96,000.

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Historically, bull runs have been marked by prices trading at a premium on Coinbase, indicating strong leadership from U.S. investors. The premium soared to two-month highs in early November as BTC rose into its the-then uncharted territory above $70,000.

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Exchange Review - March 2025

Exchange Review March 2025

CoinDesk Data's monthly Exchange Review captures the key developments within the cryptocurrency exchange market. The report includes analyses that relate to exchange volumes, crypto derivatives trading, market segmentation by fees, fiat trading, and more.

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Trading activity softened in March as market uncertainty grew amid escalating tariff tensions between the U.S. and global trading partners. Centralized exchanges recorded their lowest combined trading volume since October, declining 6.24% to $6.79tn. This marked the third consecutive monthly decline across both market segments, with spot trading volume falling 14.1% to $1.98tn and derivatives trading slipping 2.56% to $4.81tn.

  • Trading Volumes Decline for Third Consecutive Month: Combined spot and derivatives trading volume on centralized exchanges fell by 6.24% to $6.79tn in March 2025, reaching the lowest level since October. Both spot and derivatives markets recorded their third consecutive monthly decline, falling 14.1% and 2.56% to $1.98tn and $4.81tn respectively.
  • Institutional Crypto Trading Volume on CME Falls 23.5%: In March, total derivatives trading volume on the CME exchange fell by 23.5% to $175bn, the lowest monthly volume since October 2024. CME's market share among derivatives exchanges dropped from 4.63% to 3.64%, suggesting declining institutional interest amid current macroeconomic conditions. 
  • Bybit Spot Market Share Slides in March: Spot trading volume on Bybit fell by 52.1% to $81.1bn in March, coinciding with decreased trading activity following the hack of the exchange's cold wallets in February. Bybit's spot market share dropped from 7.35% to 4.10%, its lowest since July 2023.

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Consensus 2025: Zak Folkman, Eric Trump

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