Blockchain Enters 'Trough of Disillusionment' on Gartner's Hype Scale

Interest in blockchain technology is waning, research firm Gartner said in its latest "Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies" report.

Gartner included blockchain, along with four other emerging technologies, as one of five trends that can blur the lines between humans and machines, according to a news release on August 20. Blockchain technology is at the edge of the "trough of disillusionment" phase in the cycle, though it predicts that the technology may reach the "plateau of productivity" within the next decade.

The "trough of disillusionment" means that "interest [in the technology] wanes as experiments and implementations fail to deliver. Producers of the technology shake out or fail. Investments continue only if the surviving providers improve their products to the satisfaction of early adopters," as explained on Gartner's website.

Mike Walker, research vice president at Gartner, said in a news release that "digitalized ecosystem technologies are making their way to the Hype Cycle fast," adding:

"Blockchain and [internet of things] platforms have crossed the peak by now, and we believe that they will reach maturity in the next five to 10 years, with digital twins and knowledge graphs on their heels."

The "shift from compartmentalized technical infrastructure to ecosystem-enabling platforms," as written in the news release, is building the fundamentals for unique business models as the technology stabilizes in the future.

In addition to blockchain technology, which is part of the "digitalized ecosystems," four other distinct emerging technology trends that are listed on the hype cycle are "democratized AI," "do-it-yourself biohacking," "transparently immersive experiences" and "ubiquitous infrastructure," according to the release.

The Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies report is the longest-running annual Gartner Hype Cycle, according to Gartner's website, and it serves to provide a cross-industry perspective on the technologies and trends.

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