Bitcoin Eyes Independence Day Price Gains for Fifth Year Running

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• Bitcoin could rise above $12,000 with the daily chart reporting a bullish reversal.
• A high-volume bullish breakout on the hourly chart indicates scope for a rise to the bearish lower high at $12,448.
• BTC could yet post losses today, however, if prices find acceptance below key support at $11,385.

BTC$107,825.22 looks set to close in the green on U.S. Independence Day for the fifth consecutive year, having recovered nearly 25 percent from recent lows.

The top cryptocurrency by market capitalization rose 1.17, 1.79, 3.35 and 1.67 percent on July 4 in 2018, 2017, 2016 and 2015, respectively, according to Bitstamp data.

BTC's Independence Day performance in the years prior to 2015 is mixed. Prices saw little change in 2012, rose 3.16 percent in 2013 and suffered a 2.63 percent loss in 2014.

All-in-all, bitcoin, considered by some observers as an anti-establishment asset, has put on a good show on the U.S. Independence Day in five out of the last seven years.

The cryptocurrency now appears poised to extend the four-year winning trend, as the recovery from recent lows seems to be gathering traction and the short duration charts are now flashing bullish signals.

As of writing, BTC is changing hands at $11,600, representing 4 percent gains on a 24-hour basis, having hit a high of $12,061 earlier today. At that price, the cryptocurrency was up more than $2,400, or 25 percent, from the July 21 low of $9,614.

Hourly chart

BTC jumped 4 percent in 60 minutes late on Wednesday, confirming an upside break of the symmetrical triangle – a bullish continuation pattern – on the hourly chart.

Notably, the breakout was backed by a sharp rise in buy volumes (green bars). In fact, buy volume climbed to its highest since July 1, invalidating the bearish volume divergence represented by the falling trendline.

Therefore, the path of least resistance is on the higher side and prices could rise toward the bearish lower high of $12,448 created on June 26.

While the momentum has cooled somewhat in the last 10 hours, the minor price pullback seems to have taken the shape of a bull flag – a pause that often restarts with upwards momentum.

The probability of BTC posting daily gains with a UTC close above today's opening price of $12,061 would drop if the price finds acceptance below $11,385 – the low of yesterday's high-volume bullish candle (horizontal line).

That, however, looks unlikely, as the daily chart is reporting a bullish candlestick pattern.

Daily chart

BTC rose 10.5 percent on Wednesday, marking a strong follow-through to the dip demand highlighted by the preceding day's bullish hammer candle.

The candlestick pattern indicates the pullback likely ended at $9,614 and thus prices could continue to rise toward the recent high of $13,880.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency at the time of writing

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by TradingView