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First Mover: Bitcoiners May Not Care if Dollar Keeps Its Reserve Status
What if the dollar keeps its reserve status? PLUS: FCA ban, McAfee arrest, commercial real-estate wipeout.
A growing number of economists and analysts – and even the Wall Street firm Goldman Sachs – have speculated this year that the U.S. dollar might be on the cusp of losing its status as the dominant reserve currency for central banks around the world.
Story continues
That possibility has helped to support this year's 50% increase in prices for bitcoin, seen by many cryptocurrency investors as a hedge against a dollar devaluation.
But CoinDesk's Omkar Godbole reported Tuesday that, according to one prominent foreign-exchange analyst, the dollar's value could decline significantly even if the U.S. currency keeps its majority share of global central-bank reserves for the foreseeable future. As of the most recent data, the percentage is around 60%.
"Backing the dollar is the world's biggest, deepest and the most transparent government bond market," Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex and author of the book "Making Sense of the Dollar," told CoinDesk in a video chat on Wednesday. "I just don't know how bitcoin can replace the greenback from that viewpoint."
Read More: Bitcoin Unlikely to Replace US Dollar as Global Reserve: Marc Chandler
Bitcoin Watch
Bitcoin's price bounce from Friday's low of $10,380 looks to have stalled, and the cryptocurrency remains trapped in a contracting triangle or a narrowing price range.
Such low-volatility price consolidations often end with a violent move on either side.
Some investors may be anticipating a range breakdown, given the weekly chart MACD histogram has crossed below zero, a sign of a bearish shift in momentum.
The indicator, however, is based on backward-looking moving averages and lags prices. As such, its reliability is under question.
Besides, broader sentiment in the options market is bullish, according to three- and six-month put-call skews, which measure the cost of puts relative to calls.
Further, on-chain data shows the market is currently witnessing a bigger influx of new investors than it did at the height of the bull market frenzy in late 2017. That is a major bullish sign, according to popular analyst Willy Woo.
- Omkar Godbole
Read More: Bitcoin’s Options Market Retains Long-Term Bull Bias Despite Sluggish Price
Token Watch
Wrapped bitcoin (wBTC): Record $616M of wrapped bitcoin minted in September.
Ether (ETH): Futures contracts on BitMEX for Ethereum's native token drop by half in wake of U.S. regulators filing charges against Seychelles-based cryptocurrency exchange.
What's Hot
FCA finalizes ban on sale of crypto derivatives to UK retail consumers (CoinDesk)
China's digital-yuan pilot has racked up $162M of transactions (South China Morning Post)
Fidelity, Vanguard, Schwab funds have been loading up on crypto mining stocks (CoinDesk)
Central Bank of Oman warns that crypto assets are "fraught with high risks" (CoinDesk)
Analogs
The latest on the economy and traditional finance
Tweet of the Day
Outlook Cryptos October; #Bitcoin on Track for $100,000 in 2025, Historical Growth Guides --
— Mike McGlone (@mikemcglone11) October 5, 2020
Bitcoin should continue doing what it has for most of its nascent existence, appreciating in price on the back of increasing adoption, but at a slower pace as we see it. pic.twitter.com/w9Ak3X8jTs
Omkar Godbole
Omkar Godbole is a Co-Managing Editor on CoinDesk's Markets team based in Mumbai, holds a masters degree in Finance and a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) member. Omkar previously worked at FXStreet, writing research on currency markets and as fundamental analyst at currency and commodities desk at Mumbai-based brokerage houses. Omkar holds small amounts of bitcoin, ether, BitTorrent, tron and dot.
Bradley Keoun
Bradley Keoun is CoinDesk's managing editor of tech & protocols, where he oversees a team of reporters covering blockchain technology, and previously ran the global crypto markets team. A two-time Loeb Awards finalist, he previously was chief global finance and economic correspondent for TheStreet and before that worked as an editor and reporter for Bloomberg News in New York and Mexico City, reporting on Wall Street, emerging markets and the energy industry. He started out as a police-beat reporter for the Gainesville Sun in Florida and later worked as a general-assignment reporter for the Chicago Tribune. Originally from Fort Wayne, Indiana, he double-majored in electrical engineering and classical studies as an undergraduate at Duke University and later obtained a master's in journalism from the University of Florida. He is currently based in Austin, Texas, and in his spare time plays guitar, sings in a choir and hikes in the Texas Hill Country. He owns less than $1,000 each of several cryptocurrencies.
Sebastian Sinclair
Sebastian Sinclair is the market and news reporter for CoinDesk operating in the South East Asia timezone. He has experience trading in the cryptocurrency markets, providing technical analysis and covering news developments affecting the movements on bitcoin and the industry as a whole. He currently holds no cryptocurrencies.
