First Mover Asia: Bitcoin Continues to Look East for Strength

Good morning. Here’s what’s happening:

Prices: A busy economic week in China with plenty of data releases scheduled might be what it takes to get bitcoin out of its slump.

Insights: On-chain indicators show that bitcoin’s current price exceeds the cost basis for 70% of unique addresses.

Prices

CoinDesk Market Index (CMI) 1,105.17 −15.7 ▼ 1.4% Bitcoin (BTC) $23,441 −224.1 ▼ 0.9% Ethereum (ETH) $1,646 −19.5 ▼ 1.2% S&P 500 daily close 3,981.35 +30.0 ▲ 0.8% Gold $1,845 +7.2 ▲ 0.4% Treasury Yield 10 Years 4.07% ▲ 0.1 BTC/ETH prices per CoinDesk Indices; gold is COMEX spot price. Prices as of about 4 p.m. ET

Good morning.

Bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH) remain fairly flat as Asia starts its business day, despite concerns over the accessibility of future access to banking rails in the U.S.

Bitcoin is trading at $23,441, down 0.9% in the last 24 hours, while ether is down 1.2% and trading at $1,646.

In the last 24 hours, access to banking for crypto companies in the U.S. has become a greater concern. Silvergate, which has marketed itself as a crypto-friendly bank, has seen the majority of its client base depart for rival Signature after it delayed filing its annual report with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. In late December, Signature said it was looking to reduce its crypto-related deposits by $10 billion and is being sued for “substantially facilitating” comingling of funds at FTX.

All this is coming after a Jan. 3 joint press release from the Federal Reserve, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) that presented concern over the risks crypto assets place on banking organizations.

At the same time, there continues to be optimism coming out of the East.

It’s going to be a busy week in China for data releases.

On Tuesday, it's set to release data on the balance of trade figures for January and February. Analysts are expecting a major jump from $78 billion for the last period to $100 billion.

Year-over-year export and import data for the period is also expected to improve. Earlier this week, upbeat manufacturing data from China pushed bitcoin up by 4%.

Asset Ticker Returns DACS Sector Gala GALA −4.2% Entertainment Chainlink LINK −3.6% Computing Cosmos ATOM −3.3% Smart Contract Platform

Insights

Most Bitcoin Addresses Are Profitable

By Glenn Williams Jr.

A full 70% of bitcoin addresses are profitable, according to data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode.

The “Percent Addresses in Profit” indicator illustrates the percentage of unique addresses whose average purchase price sits below the current price for bitcoin. Historically readings below 50 have indicated that BTC is oversold, and thus, represent a potential bottom.

Readings above 95% indicate a potential top. Bitcoin’s current reading falls very much in line with an asset that has been trading in a tight range, as BTC has recently.

Important events

ETHDenver 2023

8:00 a.m. HKT/SGT(00:00 UTC) Eurozone S&P Global Composite PMI (Feb)

2:00 p.m. HKT/SGT(6:00 UTC) United States ISM Services PMI (Feb)

CoinDesk TV

In case you missed it, here is the most recent episode of "First Mover" on CoinDesk TV:

Silvergate Stock Tumbles as Bank Delays Annual Report; Two-Time NBA All-Star Baron Davis on Web3 Outlook

Silvergate Bank's stock was plunging after the crypto-friendly bank said it is delaying the filing of its annual report. Wave Financial Head of Protocol and Treasury Management Nauman Sheikh shared his reaction. Plus, former National Basketball Association All-Star and serial entrepreneur Baron Davis shared his outlook on the Web3 and blockchain space. And, Matrixport head of research and strategy Markus Thielen explained why Ordinals' non-fungible tokens (NFT) have the potential to push Stacks Network's STX into a billion-dollar token.

Headlines

Bitcoin Miners Are Starting to Emerge From Brutal Crypto Winter: After several bankruptcies and fire sales, the rally in bitcoin’s price is providing some relief for the miners, although they may not be completely out of the woods yet.

Crypto Bank Silvergate Stock Tumbles 45% After 'Going Concern' Filing: The ominous language came in an 8-K filing with the SEC Wednesday evening, in which the troubled lender requested more time before filing its 2022 annual report.

Host of Crypto Firms, Including Coinbase, Paxos and Galaxy, Jump Ship From Silvergate Bank: Coinbase's change is specific to banking in U.S. dollars and doesn't affect payment instructions in pounds or euros.

401(k) Provider ForUsAll to Offer Crypto Investments Into CoinDesk Indices Constituents: This will be the first index-based digital asset offering available through a 401(k), says ForUsAll.

Ethereum Developers Target March 14 Date for Shanghai Upgrade on Goerli Testnet: The event will be the last “Shapella” dress rehearsal for Ethereum’s upcoming hard fork.