Bitcoin Onchain Data Show Bullish Undercurrents

Bullish bitcoin (BTC) undercurrents lurk below the boringly calm crypto waters, setting the stage for a potential outsized price rally.

The percentage of bitcoin's circulating supply active onchain within the last month fell to a record low of 5.4% early this week, according to Blockware Solutions and Glassnode. In other words, fewer coins are changing hands, indicating supply-side weakness. At press time, bitcoin's circulating supply was 19.48 million.

"Price is set at the margin, which means those who trade Bitcoin back and forth drive short-term price action. As supply-side illiquidity continues to increase, as indicated by fewer supply exchanging hands, any demand catalyst will send the price skyrocketing," Blockware Solutions said in an email.

The percentage of circulating supply that has remained inactive for over a year stands near 70%.

Buy and hold remains a preferred strategy in the crypto market, with the so-called long-term holders controlling over 75% of the circulating supply. Glassnode defines long-term holders as addresses that hold coins for at least 155 days.

Awaiting bullish catalysts

Besides the potential spot bitcoin-exchange-traded fund (ETF) launch, which is several months away, macro and regulatory concerns favor the bears.

"The macro scenario has never been murkier and the 'higher for longer' general mood could keep a lid on risk assets, including crypto," David Lawant, head of research at FalconX, said in a note to subscribers on Tuesday.

"There's also some potential selling pressure coming from government-seized wallets, chapter 11 portfolios, and large token unlocks over the next 6-12 months. Finally, there's uncertainty on whether more regulatory action is coming in the U.S.," Lawant added.