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Biden Overtakes VP Harris as Likeliest Dem Nominee on Polymarket During President's Press Conference (Update)

The president said he plans to stay in the race but "it's important that I allay fears."

Updated Jul 12, 2024, 1:01 a.m. Published Jul 11, 2024, 10:47 p.m.

The first portrait of Joe Biden as president of the United States, 2021. (The White House)

Joe Biden's odds of being the Democratic nominee for president overtook those of his vice president, Kamala Harris following his first press conference in months, according to traders on crypto-based prediction market platform Polymarket.

Traders at one point gave him a 51% shot of being the nominee, way up from 33% earlier in the day, according to a contract on Polymarket. The odds were recently back down to 45%.

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Meanwhile, Harris' probability of getting the nod dipped as low as 37% before rebounding to 42% at press time.

Biden's chance of victory in November stands at 13%, less than Harris' 15%, according to Polymarket.

Former President and likely Republican nominee Donald Trump remains the favorite to win the White House. "Yes" shares in Polymarket's contract for Trump recently traded at 61 cents, and will pay out $1 per share (in USDC, a stablecoin, or cryptocurrency pegged to the dollar) if he wins and zilch if not, meaning the market gives him 61% odds of victory.

Biden slurred his words several times during the press conference and mistakenly referred to Harris as "Vice President Trump," but he also spoke in depth about foreign policy issues following a NATO summit and at one point his voice neared a yell as he talked about American children getting killed by guns. The president reiterated that he plans to stay in the race but acknowledged "it's important that I allay fears" about his condition.

Concerns about his age and cognitive health have led to widespread calls among prominent Democrats and donors, including actor George Clooney, for the president to step aside, despite his insistence he is staying in.

Hundreds of millions of dollars are riding on the election's outcome on Polymarket, which is enjoying a breakout year despite having to geofence U.S. users under a regulatory settlement. The platform's bets are programmed into smart contracts on the Polygon blockchain.

UPDATE (July 12, 2024, 00:51 UTC): Rewrites throughout with details of press conference and price updates.

Election 2024 Prediction Markets Polymarket

Marc Hochstein

As Deputy Editor-in-Chief for Features, Opinion, Ethics and Standards, Marc oversaw CoinDesk's long-form content, set editorial policies and acted as the ombudsman for our industry-leading newsroom. He also spearheaded our nascent coverage of prediction markets and helped compile The Node, our daily email newsletter rounding up the biggest stories in crypto. From November 2022 to June 2024 Marc was the Executive Editor of Consensus, CoinDesk's flagship annual event. He joined CoinDesk in 2017 as a managing editor and has steadily added responsibilities over the years. Marc is a veteran journalist with more than 25 years' experience, including 17 years at the trade publication American Banker, the last three as editor-in-chief, where he was responsible for some of the earliest mainstream news coverage of cryptocurrency and blockchain technology. DISCLOSURE: Marc holds BTC above CoinDesk's disclosure threshold of $1,000; marginal amounts of ETH, SOL, XMR, ZEC, MATIC and EGIRL; an Urbit planet (~fodrex-malmev); two ENS domain names (MarcHochstein.eth and MarcusHNYC.eth); and NFTs from the Oekaki (pictured), Lil Skribblers, SSRWives, and Gwar collections.