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First Mover Americas: Bitcoin Settles Above $67K After Biden Drops Out
The latest price moves in crypto markets in context for July 22, 2024.
Updated Jul 22, 2024, 12:07 p.m. Published Jul 22, 2024, 12:07 p.m.
This article originally appeared in First Mover, CoinDesk’s daily newsletter, putting the latest moves in crypto markets in context. Subscribe to get it in your inbox every day.
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Bitcoin settled above $67,000 following a brief surge above $68,000 on Sunday after President Biden said he would not seek reelection. BTC initially slumped after Biden's announcement before recovering to over $68,400 and was trading around $67,450 at the time of writing, 0.7% higher than 24 hours ago. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), which measures the broader digital asset market, rose 1.25%. SOL and DOGE led the gains with increases of around 4.3% and 5% respectively.
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President Biden's withdrawal from the November election dropped pro-crypto candidate Donald Trump's probability of victory from 71% to 65% on Polymarket. Vice President Kamala Harris' odds almost doubled to 30% from 16%. While Biden's decision tempered Trump's White House prospects, the market's response was initially positive. "Biden’s withdrawal has opened up a possibility where, regardless of who sits in the White House, the U.S. government may embrace a more constructive stance towards the digital asset industry after November," Singapore-based crypto research firm Presto wrote in a Monday note. "Whether Harris or any other contenders will pursue such a path remains to be seen, but the optionality that hardly existed before is now there."
Bitcoin's price is too high compared to its production cost of $43,000 and any increase is likely to be a short-term one, JPMorgan said in a report last week. BTC's volatility-adjustment comparison to gold was $53,000, further suggesting it is overpriced, the bank said. JPMorgan noted that momentum in bitcoin futures has been weak in recent weeks due to BTC liquidations by creditors of Gemini, Mt. Gox creditors and the German government. Liquidations are expected to subside this month and the bank continues to look for a rebound in Chicago Mercantile Exchange bitcoin futures positioning into August.
Chart of the Day
- The chart shows bitcoin's Korea Premium Index, which measures the gap between South Korean and Western exchanges.
- The index has dropped to nearly zero for the first time since November, a sign of decreased retail investor participation in the market.
- Source: CryptoQuant
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- Omkar Godbole
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Exchange Review - March 2025
CoinDesk Data's monthly Exchange Review captures the key developments within the cryptocurrency exchange market. The report includes analyses that relate to exchange volumes, crypto derivatives trading, market segmentation by fees, fiat trading, and more.
What to know:
Trading activity softened in March as market uncertainty grew amid escalating tariff tensions between the U.S. and global trading partners. Centralized exchanges recorded their lowest combined trading volume since October, declining 6.24% to $6.79tn. This marked the third consecutive monthly decline across both market segments, with spot trading volume falling 14.1% to $1.98tn and derivatives trading slipping 2.56% to $4.81tn.
- Trading Volumes Decline for Third Consecutive Month: Combined spot and derivatives trading volume on centralized exchanges fell by 6.24% to $6.79tn in March 2025, reaching the lowest level since October. Both spot and derivatives markets recorded their third consecutive monthly decline, falling 14.1% and 2.56% to $1.98tn and $4.81tn respectively.
- Institutional Crypto Trading Volume on CME Falls 23.5%: In March, total derivatives trading volume on the CME exchange fell by 23.5% to $175bn, the lowest monthly volume since October 2024. CME's market share among derivatives exchanges dropped from 4.63% to 3.64%, suggesting declining institutional interest amid current macroeconomic conditions.
- Bybit Spot Market Share Slides in March: Spot trading volume on Bybit fell by 52.1% to $81.1bn in March, coinciding with decreased trading activity following the hack of the exchange's cold wallets in February. Bybit's spot market share dropped from 7.35% to 4.10%, its lowest since July 2023.
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