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Short-Term Bitcoin Holders Have Moved Nearly $8B Worth of BTC to Exchanges, Signaling Price Bottom: Van Straten

As bitcoin approached $100,000 we saw record notional profit-taking, however, as bitcoin dropped to almost $90,000 we are seeing record notional loss-taking.

BTC: Short Term Holders in Loss to Exchanges (Glassnode)
BTC: Short Term Holders in Loss to Exchanges (Glassnode)

What to know:

  • Short-term holders have sent almost $8 billion worth of bitcoin to exchanges at a loss over the past two days.
  • The volatility in recent bitcoin price action has seen wild record swings in profit-taking to panic selling.

Bitcoin (BTC) volatility is back and investors have two choices either embrace the volatility or have no part of it.

However, the current bitcoin cycle has been rather muted in terms of realized volatility and drawdowns compared to previous ones. The recent drop from nearly $100,000 to almost $90,000, just shy of a 10% correction, has kept investors on their toes.

Over the past two days, Glassnode data shows that short-term holders or those that have held bitcoin for less than 155 days, have sent $7.8 billion or 83,000 BTC to exchanges at a loss over the past two days.

In notional terms, this is the highest number on record. When this cohort tends to send $2 billion or more worth of tokens to exchanges, at a loss, it generally marks a local bottom.

With bitcoin changing hands at 7% away from its all-time high, investors that have bought in the past week are the only entity that would be sitting in a loss.

Glassnode data shows that approximately 678,000 bitcoin are sitting in a loss. This comes after record notional profit-taking as bitcoin approached $100,000.

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Total Supply in Loss Held By Short-Term Holders (Glassnode)
Total Supply in Loss Held By Short-Term Holders (Glassnode)

James Van Straten

James Van Straten is a Senior Analyst at CoinDesk, specializing in Bitcoin and its interplay with the macroeconomic environment. Previously, James worked as a Research Analyst at Saidler & Co., a Swiss hedge fund, where he developed expertise in on-chain analytics. His work focuses on monitoring flows to analyze Bitcoin's role within the broader financial system.

In addition to his professional endeavors, James serves as an advisor to Coinsilium, a UK publicly traded company, where he provides guidance on their Bitcoin treasury strategy. He also holds investments in Bitcoin, MicroStrategy (MSTR), and Semler Scientific (SMLR).

James Van Straten