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Bitcoin Still Following Previous Cycle's Trajectory Despite Price Drop: Van Straten
Despite the U.S. tariff uncertainty, bitcoin remains on track with previous cycles.
What to know:
- Bitcoin performance remains on track with previous cycles despite tariff uncertainty.
- Bitcoin has remained range-bound in a channel between $90,000 and $109,000 for the past 2.5 months.
Bitcoin (BTC) continues to follow the trajectory of its 2017 cycle. Despite recent market turbulence, driven by escalating tariff tensions between the U.S and its neighbouring countries, as well as China.
Bitcoin remains up approximately 525% from its cycle low during the FTX collapse in November 2022. Comparatively, at the same stage in the 2017 cycle, bitcoin had risen 533%.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW
While, another method for evaluating bitcoin’s cyclical behavior is by measuring returns from previous all-time highs. The last cycle's market peak occurred in April 2021 at approximately $64,000, although in nominal terms, bitcoin’s all-time high was $69,000 in November 2021.
However, many on-chain indicators suggest that April 2021 marked the cycle’s true top. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, bitcoin has demonstrated remarkable consistency in tracking previous cycles.
In addition, bitcoin (BTC) has remained range-bound within a $90,000 to $109,000 channel for the past 2.5 months, even amid heightened market volatility. Bitcoin continues to test both the upper and lower bounds of its current trading channel.
Meanwhile, previous CoinDesk research identified $91,000 as a local bottom for bitcoin.
James Van Straten
James Van Straten is a Senior Analyst at CoinDesk, specializing in Bitcoin and its interplay with the macroeconomic environment. Previously, James worked as a Research Analyst at Saidler & Co., a Swiss hedge fund, where he developed expertise in on-chain analytics. His work focuses on monitoring flows to analyze Bitcoin's role within the broader financial system. In addition to his professional endeavors, James serves as an advisor to Coinsilium, a UK publicly traded company, where he provides guidance on their Bitcoin treasury strategy. He also holds investments in Bitcoin, MicroStrategy (MSTR), and Semler Scientific (SMLR).
