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Bitcoin Drops Below Key 2025 Realized Price Level, Raising Risk of Further Downside: Van Straten
Over 2.6 million bitcoin in supply are currently at a loss, one of the highest levels this year.
What to know:
- Bitcoin is currently below its 2025 average realized price of $100,356.
- For the past few years, the realized price per year has provided bitcoin with a great support level.
- Over 2.6 million bitcoin are currently sitting at a loss.
The average withdrawal price of bitcoin (BTC) from exchanges in 2025 currently stands at $100,356. At present, bitcoin is trading just below this level, hovering around $98,000.
The concern arises when bitcoin falls below the average withdrawal price for a sustained period of time, as this can often trigger continued selling and more downward price pressure. Historically, this metric has served as a strong support level for bitcoin.
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Busting below this support, however, does not necessarily indicate a bear market or sustained declines, as bitcoin historically reclaims this price level quickly.
In 2024, for example, bitcoin repeatedly tested its average withdrawal price just below $60,000. The price indeed did briefly dip below this level multiple times, most notably in August during the yen carry trade unwind when it fell to $49,000. The price, though, managed to reclaim the support level within a few days.
Similarly, in 2023, the realized price provided key support on multiple occasions, including during the Silicon Valley Bank collapse in March ($20,000) and again in September, just before bitcoin’s Q4 rally.
According to Glassnode data, over 2.6 million BTC are sitting at a loss, one of the highest amounts this year. The longer it sustains a price below the 2025 average, the greater the chance further declines could be in order.
James Van Straten
James Van Straten is a Senior Analyst at CoinDesk, specializing in Bitcoin and its interplay with the macroeconomic environment. Previously, James worked as a Research Analyst at Saidler & Co., a Swiss hedge fund, where he developed expertise in on-chain analytics. His work focuses on monitoring flows to analyze Bitcoin's role within the broader financial system.
In addition to his professional endeavors, James serves as an advisor to Coinsilium, a UK publicly traded company, where he provides guidance on their Bitcoin treasury strategy. He also holds investments in Bitcoin, MicroStrategy (MSTR), and Semler Scientific (SMLR).
