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Tariff-Sensitive Australian Dollar Offers Hope to Bitcoin Bulls as BTC Drops Below $75K
The tariff-sensitive currency has rebounded nearly 100 pips from the Asian session low, suggesting a potential nadir in the selling of risk assets.
Updated Apr 7, 2025, 7:37 a.m. Published Apr 7, 2025, 7:16 a.m.
What to know:
- Bitcoin's price has fallen below $75,000 amid escalating trade tensions, as suggested by a bearish reversal pattern in January.
- The Australian dollar has shown signs of recovery, suggesting a potential climax in the tariffs-led sell-off.
- Engaging in bottom fishing during a market downturn is a risky strategy.
Roughly 10 weeks ago, CoinDesk discussed a double top bearish reversal pattern in bitcoin (BTC), warning of a sell-off to $75,000 in a move typical of a bull-market pull back.
On Monday, the price dropped below that level as escalating trade tensions cratered financial markets, sending Dow Jones Industrial Average futures lower by a whooping 900 points. According to technical analysis theory, the BTC sell-off could run out of steam between $70K and $75K, as discussed in January.
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Besides, the Australian dollar (AUD), a commodity currency particularly vulnerable to Trump-led global trade tensions, is offering hope to crypto bulls. The AUD/USD pair has recovered to 0.6011 after dropping as low as 0.5930 earlier Monday, according to data source TradingView. The pair was the worst hit on Friday, falling over 4%, a big move for a national currency.
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When trade tensions escalate, currencies of nations involved in the tussle typically react quickly due to expected changes in trade balances, economic conditions and interest-rate expectations. The AUD is one such currency. As the home currency of commodity exporter Australia, it's seen as a proxy for China, one of the country's biggest customers. So, the sharp recovery in the AUD could be a sign of tariffs-led sell-off reaching climax.
That said, bottom fishing in a falling market is akin to catching a falling knife, a risky strategy.
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Exchange Review - March 2025
CoinDesk Data's monthly Exchange Review captures the key developments within the cryptocurrency exchange market. The report includes analyses that relate to exchange volumes, crypto derivatives trading, market segmentation by fees, fiat trading, and more.
What to know:
Trading activity softened in March as market uncertainty grew amid escalating tariff tensions between the U.S. and global trading partners. Centralized exchanges recorded their lowest combined trading volume since October, declining 6.24% to $6.79tn. This marked the third consecutive monthly decline across both market segments, with spot trading volume falling 14.1% to $1.98tn and derivatives trading slipping 2.56% to $4.81tn.
- Trading Volumes Decline for Third Consecutive Month: Combined spot and derivatives trading volume on centralized exchanges fell by 6.24% to $6.79tn in March 2025, reaching the lowest level since October. Both spot and derivatives markets recorded their third consecutive monthly decline, falling 14.1% and 2.56% to $1.98tn and $4.81tn respectively.
- Institutional Crypto Trading Volume on CME Falls 23.5%: In March, total derivatives trading volume on the CME exchange fell by 23.5% to $175bn, the lowest monthly volume since October 2024. CME's market share among derivatives exchanges dropped from 4.63% to 3.64%, suggesting declining institutional interest amid current macroeconomic conditions.
- Bybit Spot Market Share Slides in March: Spot trading volume on Bybit fell by 52.1% to $81.1bn in March, coinciding with decreased trading activity following the hack of the exchange's cold wallets in February. Bybit's spot market share dropped from 7.35% to 4.10%, its lowest since July 2023.
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What to know:
- Ethena's USDe becomes fifth stablecoin to surpass $10 billion market cap in just 609 days, while Tether's dominance continues to slip.
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