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Bitcoin Price Recovery Lacks Whale Participation, Onchain Data Show
Blockchain analytics firm IntoTheBlock's "large holder netflow" indicator shows whales are yet to resume accumulation.
Updated Apr 15, 2024, 7:28 p.m. Published Apr 15, 2024, 9:44 a.m.
- Large holders or wallets owning at least 0.1% of bitcoin's circulating supply are yet to resume accumulation, according to IntoTheBlock.
- Traders should closely watch the ETF flows on Monday.
Bitcoin has recovered 3% since hitting lows near $61,000 over the weekend. Whales, however, are yet to buy the positive turnaround aggressively.
Blockchain analytics firm IntoTheBlock's "large holder netflow" indicator shows that addresses owning at least 0.1% of BTC's circulating supply have added just over 3,000 BTC ($198 million) today. That's significantly less than the net inflow of nearly 80,000 BTC ($5.3 billion) seen a day after March 20's dip below $61,000.
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According to IntoTheBlock, large wallets or whales are good at timing the market, often picking the best moments to accumulate or distribute coins. Thus, tracking the netflow indicator offers insights into what large traders are thinking and the sustainability of the ongoing trend.
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The lack of whale participation in the recovery means whales likely expect a deeper price slide. Bitcoin fell over 5% last week as the rally in the dollar index and Iran-Israel tensions triggered an outflow of money from risk assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies and into gold.
Per IntoTheBlock, the netflow indicator is sensitive to wallets tied to U.S.-listed spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and traders should closely watch the ETF flows on Monday.
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What to know:
Trading activity softened in March as market uncertainty grew amid escalating tariff tensions between the U.S. and global trading partners. Centralized exchanges recorded their lowest combined trading volume since October, declining 6.24% to $6.79tn. This marked the third consecutive monthly decline across both market segments, with spot trading volume falling 14.1% to $1.98tn and derivatives trading slipping 2.56% to $4.81tn.
- Trading Volumes Decline for Third Consecutive Month: Combined spot and derivatives trading volume on centralized exchanges fell by 6.24% to $6.79tn in March 2025, reaching the lowest level since October. Both spot and derivatives markets recorded their third consecutive monthly decline, falling 14.1% and 2.56% to $1.98tn and $4.81tn respectively.
- Institutional Crypto Trading Volume on CME Falls 23.5%: In March, total derivatives trading volume on the CME exchange fell by 23.5% to $175bn, the lowest monthly volume since October 2024. CME's market share among derivatives exchanges dropped from 4.63% to 3.64%, suggesting declining institutional interest amid current macroeconomic conditions.
- Bybit Spot Market Share Slides in March: Spot trading volume on Bybit fell by 52.1% to $81.1bn in March, coinciding with decreased trading activity following the hack of the exchange's cold wallets in February. Bybit's spot market share dropped from 7.35% to 4.10%, its lowest since July 2023.
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