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PoliFi Tokens, BTC Under Pressure Ahead of Biden-Trump Debate
If crypto-friendly Republican candidate Trump goes off the rails, Republicans may wince, but the GOP ticket will likely not change.
Updated Jun 27, 2024, 6:16 a.m. Published Jun 27, 2024, 6:13 a.m.
- Bitcoin and PoliFi tokens, TRUMP, TREMP and BODEN, suffered losses ahead of Thursday's presidential debate.
- Crypto traders will closely watch the debate, as Trump has made digital assets a vital issue in his presidential campaign.
- The consensus among the crypto community seems to be that a Trump victory would be favorable for the industry.
The crypto market showed no signs of excitement ahead of Thursday's pivotal U.S. Presidential debate between incumbent Joe Biden and his crypto-friendly Republican candidate, Donald Trump.
At 04:56 UTC, TRUMP, the first major token in the PoliFi sector, traded near $8.5, representing a 0.5% drop on a 24-hour basis. Its Solana-based counterpart TREMP traded 7.2% lower at 74 cents and the Joe Biden-themed BODEN coin was 16% at 13 cents, according to data source Coingecko. Meanwhile, bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency by market value, traded 1% lower at $61,000.
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Per TS Lombard, the first presidential debate of 2024, set for Thursday at 21:00 ET, is likely to bring "a few voter surprises but has the potential to recast if not shape up a dead heat race."
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"If shaky Biden underperforms his rival, pressure from big Democrat donors to ditch his candidacy will surge, especially with Biden now trailing on fundraising for the second straight month. If Trump goes off the rails, Republicans may wince, but the GOP ticket won't change. Rather, the onus will shift to Trump's as-yet-announced VP pick to steady his campaign," TS Lombard said in a note to clients on Tuesday.
"In both cases, the bar (set by the first truculent Trump-Biden debate) is low, but the stakes are high," Lombard added.
The crypto industry has lobbied to ensure digital assets are discussed in the televised presidential faceoff, and potential comments from the two candidates could inject volatility into the market.
Crypto traders will closely watch the debate, as Trump has made digital assets a vital issue in his presidential campaign by courting industry leaders and recently stressing the need to mine all remaining bitcoin in the U.S. As such, the crypto is now seen as a Trump trade, with Standard Chartered anticipating a record rally in BTC to $150,000 on a potential Trump victory.
Meanwhile, Biden has been silent, having asked federal agencies to explore risks and opportunities, including the potential debut of a Fed-managed central bank digital currency.
"Ahead of tonight's first presidential debate, crypto traders will be watching keenly for clues as to what November's election could mean for Bitcoin and the wider sector," said Neil Roarty, analyst at investment platform Stocklytics in an email to CoinDesk.
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"The consensus among the crypto community seems to be that a Trump victory would be favorable for the industry. Aside from the vocal support he’s given, bitcoin has tended to perform well during periods of political and economic uncertainty, and a second Trump presidency will likely see more of both," Roarty added.
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CoinDesk Data's monthly Exchange Review captures the key developments within the cryptocurrency exchange market. The report includes analyses that relate to exchange volumes, crypto derivatives trading, market segmentation by fees, fiat trading, and more.
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Trading activity softened in March as market uncertainty grew amid escalating tariff tensions between the U.S. and global trading partners. Centralized exchanges recorded their lowest combined trading volume since October, declining 6.24% to $6.79tn. This marked the third consecutive monthly decline across both market segments, with spot trading volume falling 14.1% to $1.98tn and derivatives trading slipping 2.56% to $4.81tn.
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- Institutional Crypto Trading Volume on CME Falls 23.5%: In March, total derivatives trading volume on the CME exchange fell by 23.5% to $175bn, the lowest monthly volume since October 2024. CME's market share among derivatives exchanges dropped from 4.63% to 3.64%, suggesting declining institutional interest amid current macroeconomic conditions.
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