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First Mover Americas: BTC Treads Water Ahead of U.S. Jobs Report
The latest price moves in crypto markets in context for Sept. 6, 2024.
This article originally appeared in First Mover, CoinDesk’s daily newsletter, putting the latest moves in crypto markets in context. Subscribe to get it in your inbox every day.
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Bitcoin fell as low as $55,300 before recovering to trade around $56,100, down 1% in 24 hours and extending its seven-day loss to over 5%. The broader digital asset market as measured by the CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) has dropped more than 1.3% over 24 hours. The U.S. government is set to release its nonfarm payrolls report for August later. If the reading is weak, as all the other economic data this week has been, it will strengthen the argument for an interest-rate cut of 50 basis points in September.
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Bitcoin's 200-day simple moving average is in danger of turning bearish as its upward momentum has slowed to a crawl for the first time since October. Since late August, the measure has averaged a daily increase of less than $50, a significant drop from the $200-plus moves seen earlier this year, according to data from charting platform TradingView. As of writing, the 200-day SMA was $63,840. The 100-day SMA recently moved below the 200-day SMA, confirming a bearish crossover. The averages signal a weakening bullish sentiment and growing caution consistent with the increasing macroeconomic uncertainty.
At the end of August, the crypto market had dropped 24% from its March peak to $2.02 trillion, JPMorgan said in a research report. The bank highlighted the lack of major catalysts to support crypto assets in the face of challenging macroeconomic factors. Spot ether and bitcoin ETF flows were "somewhat uninspiring," JPMorgan said, adding that many viewed the launch of ETH ETFs as disappointing when compared with the bitcoin versions in January. Spot bitcoin ETF flows also disappointed, recording net outflows of $81 million in August. The bank said it awaits the next catalyst for development and "enhanced retail engagement."
Chart of the Day
- The chart shows the number of ether held in wallets associated with centralized exchanges.
- The so-called exchange balance has increased by over 263,000 ETH ($624 million) since late August, a sign of investors looking to liquidate their holdings or use coins for derivatives trading.
- Source: CryptoQuant
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- Omkar Godbole
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Exchange Review - March 2025
CoinDesk Data's monthly Exchange Review captures the key developments within the cryptocurrency exchange market. The report includes analyses that relate to exchange volumes, crypto derivatives trading, market segmentation by fees, fiat trading, and more.
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Trading activity softened in March as market uncertainty grew amid escalating tariff tensions between the U.S. and global trading partners. Centralized exchanges recorded their lowest combined trading volume since October, declining 6.24% to $6.79tn. This marked the third consecutive monthly decline across both market segments, with spot trading volume falling 14.1% to $1.98tn and derivatives trading slipping 2.56% to $4.81tn.
- Trading Volumes Decline for Third Consecutive Month: Combined spot and derivatives trading volume on centralized exchanges fell by 6.24% to $6.79tn in March 2025, reaching the lowest level since October. Both spot and derivatives markets recorded their third consecutive monthly decline, falling 14.1% and 2.56% to $1.98tn and $4.81tn respectively.
- Institutional Crypto Trading Volume on CME Falls 23.5%: In March, total derivatives trading volume on the CME exchange fell by 23.5% to $175bn, the lowest monthly volume since October 2024. CME's market share among derivatives exchanges dropped from 4.63% to 3.64%, suggesting declining institutional interest amid current macroeconomic conditions.
- Bybit Spot Market Share Slides in March: Spot trading volume on Bybit fell by 52.1% to $81.1bn in March, coinciding with decreased trading activity following the hack of the exchange's cold wallets in February. Bybit's spot market share dropped from 7.35% to 4.10%, its lowest since July 2023.
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알아야 할 것:
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