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Bitcoin Could Hit $125K by Year-End if Trump Becomes President, $75K if Harris Triumphs: Standard Chartered

Bitcoin is expected to end the year at new all-time highs regardless of who wins the U.S. election, the report said.

Updated Sep 12, 2024, 11:39 a.m. Published Sep 12, 2024, 11:36 a.m.
Bitcoin to reach $125K by year-end if Trump wins Election or $75K if Harris triumphs: Standard Chartered. (Shutterstock)
Bitcoin to reach $125K by year-end if Trump wins Election or $75K if Harris triumphs: Standard Chartered. (Shutterstock)
  • Bitcoin is going to break out to new highs by year-end irrespective of who wins the U.S. election, the report said.
  • The bank said bitcoin could reach $125,000 if Trump wins and $75,000 if Harris triumphs.
  • Standard Chartered said positive catalysts such as regulatory reform are expected to dominate the crypto market, regardless of the election outcome.

Bitcoin , the world's largest cryptocurrency, is expected to hit a new high by year-end, regardless of who wins the U.S. election in November, investment bank Standard Chartered (STAN) said in a report on Thursday resuming coverage of the sector.

The outcome of the U.S. presidential election is important for digital assets, but it matters less than when Biden was the Democratic candidate, and less than markets think, the bank said.

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Bitcoin is expected to hit new all-time highs by year-end irrespective of who wins the election, the report said, and could reach about $125,000 if Trump wins or around $75,000 if Kamala Harris triumphs.

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The bank sees positive drivers dominating the crypto market.

"Progress on relaxing regulations - particularly the repeal of SAB 121, which imposes stringent accounting rules on banks' digital asset holdings - will continue in 2025 no matter who is in the White House," wrote Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, adding that progress would just take longer under a Harris presidency.

A re-steepening of the U.S. Treasury curve is also "building positive momentum" for bitcoin, the report noted.

Bitcoin is likely to sell-off initially if Harris wins, but Kendrick expects any dip to be bought as investors recognise that regulatory progress will still happen, albeit at a slower pace, and as other positive catalysts take over.

Read more: Bitcoin Could Hit $90K by Year End if Trump Becomes President Again: Bernstein

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Trading activity softened in March as market uncertainty grew amid escalating tariff tensions between the U.S. and global trading partners. Centralized exchanges recorded their lowest combined trading volume since October, declining 6.24% to $6.79tn. This marked the third consecutive monthly decline across both market segments, with spot trading volume falling 14.1% to $1.98tn and derivatives trading slipping 2.56% to $4.81tn.

  • Trading Volumes Decline for Third Consecutive Month: Combined spot and derivatives trading volume on centralized exchanges fell by 6.24% to $6.79tn in March 2025, reaching the lowest level since October. Both spot and derivatives markets recorded their third consecutive monthly decline, falling 14.1% and 2.56% to $1.98tn and $4.81tn respectively.
  • Institutional Crypto Trading Volume on CME Falls 23.5%: In March, total derivatives trading volume on the CME exchange fell by 23.5% to $175bn, the lowest monthly volume since October 2024. CME's market share among derivatives exchanges dropped from 4.63% to 3.64%, suggesting declining institutional interest amid current macroeconomic conditions. 
  • Bybit Spot Market Share Slides in March: Spot trading volume on Bybit fell by 52.1% to $81.1bn in March, coinciding with decreased trading activity following the hack of the exchange's cold wallets in February. Bybit's spot market share dropped from 7.35% to 4.10%, its lowest since July 2023.

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