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Bitcoin Caught Up in a Macro-Driven Sell-Off, May Fall Further: Standard Chartered
There is a danger that forced or panic selling could lead to further bitcoin weakness and a break below $90K could lead to a 10% retracement, the report said.
Jan 15, 2025, 11:04 a.m.
What to know:
- Macro headwinds have seen digital assets sell-off since mid-December, the report said.
- The bank noted that investors who took on bitcoin exposure since the U.S. election are now only breaking even.
- If bitcoin breaks $90,000 to the downside it could lead to a further 10% retracement, Standard Chartered said.
Bitcoin (BTC) and other digital assets have dropped as part of a wider macro-driven sell-off in the market and there is a risk that forced selling could lead to further weakness, investment bank Standard Chartered said in a report on Monday.
The market downturn was triggered by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's hawkish press conference in mid-December.
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The bank noted that investors who took on bitcoin exposure after the U.S. election in November, are now "only breaking even," and there is a risk that forced or panic selling could add to the sell-off. This includes exchange-traded fund (ETF) buyers and BTC acquirer MicroStrategy (MSTR).
"The risk of mark-to-market pain is building," wrote Geoff Kendrick, head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered.
If the world's largest cryptocurrency breaks below the key $90,000 level, it could retrace 10% lower to the low $80,000s the report said, and other digital assets would also likely fall.
The bank advises adding bitcoin once the retracement is over.
Standard Chartered still expects bitcoin to hit $200,000 by the end of the year, fueled by the resumption of institutional inflows under the new Trump administration.
Read more: Bitcoin Bull Tom Lee Sees BTC Reaching as High as $250K by Year-End
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Exchange Review - March 2025
CoinDesk Data's monthly Exchange Review captures the key developments within the cryptocurrency exchange market. The report includes analyses that relate to exchange volumes, crypto derivatives trading, market segmentation by fees, fiat trading, and more.
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Trading activity softened in March as market uncertainty grew amid escalating tariff tensions between the U.S. and global trading partners. Centralized exchanges recorded their lowest combined trading volume since October, declining 6.24% to $6.79tn. This marked the third consecutive monthly decline across both market segments, with spot trading volume falling 14.1% to $1.98tn and derivatives trading slipping 2.56% to $4.81tn.
- Trading Volumes Decline for Third Consecutive Month: Combined spot and derivatives trading volume on centralized exchanges fell by 6.24% to $6.79tn in March 2025, reaching the lowest level since October. Both spot and derivatives markets recorded their third consecutive monthly decline, falling 14.1% and 2.56% to $1.98tn and $4.81tn respectively.
- Institutional Crypto Trading Volume on CME Falls 23.5%: In March, total derivatives trading volume on the CME exchange fell by 23.5% to $175bn, the lowest monthly volume since October 2024. CME's market share among derivatives exchanges dropped from 4.63% to 3.64%, suggesting declining institutional interest amid current macroeconomic conditions.
- Bybit Spot Market Share Slides in March: Spot trading volume on Bybit fell by 52.1% to $81.1bn in March, coinciding with decreased trading activity following the hack of the exchange's cold wallets in February. Bybit's spot market share dropped from 7.35% to 4.10%, its lowest since July 2023.
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