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Bitcoin Could Swing Back to $95K Amid Signs of BTC Bear Exhaustion
Signs of seller exhaustion at the 200-day SMA suggests scope for a price bounce.
Updated Mar 5, 2025, 6:10 p.m. Published Mar 5, 2025, 10:25 a.m.
What to know:
- Technical charts indicate bullish undercurrents for bitcoin at key support, suggesting a potential market reversal.
- Bitcoin's price decline has stalled at the 200-day simple moving average support level, with signs of weakening selling pressure.
- Resistance is seen at $95,000 followed by $100K.
Technical charts, particularly the shape of candlesticks, often reflect the psychology behind the market, highlighting trader sentiment and behavior. Since Friday, at least two candles have indicated bullish undercurrents at multi-month lows, providing a glimmer of hope for crypto bulls.
The chart below shows that BTC's price decline has stalled at the 200-day simple moving average support level since last Wednesday. Daily candles for Tuesday and Friday are of particular interest, as both have small bodies with long lower wicks, hinting at bear failures below the 200-day SMA.
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In other words, on both days, sellers initially pushed prices below the key average but failed to establish a foothold there, likely due to buyers stepping in to protect the support level.
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Such candles appearing after a notable downtrend, which is the case in BTC, signal a potential bullish reversal. Traders usually see it as evidence of weakening selling pressure that might translate into a renewed bullish phase.
So, BTC could bounce back to Sunday's high of around $95,000, above which traders may once again set sights on the $100,000 mark. On the flip side, a downside break of the 200-day SMA could deeper losses.
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CoinDesk Data's monthly Exchange Review captures the key developments within the cryptocurrency exchange market. The report includes analyses that relate to exchange volumes, crypto derivatives trading, market segmentation by fees, fiat trading, and more.
What to know:
Trading activity softened in March as market uncertainty grew amid escalating tariff tensions between the U.S. and global trading partners. Centralized exchanges recorded their lowest combined trading volume since October, declining 6.24% to $6.79tn. This marked the third consecutive monthly decline across both market segments, with spot trading volume falling 14.1% to $1.98tn and derivatives trading slipping 2.56% to $4.81tn.
- Trading Volumes Decline for Third Consecutive Month: Combined spot and derivatives trading volume on centralized exchanges fell by 6.24% to $6.79tn in March 2025, reaching the lowest level since October. Both spot and derivatives markets recorded their third consecutive monthly decline, falling 14.1% and 2.56% to $1.98tn and $4.81tn respectively.
- Institutional Crypto Trading Volume on CME Falls 23.5%: In March, total derivatives trading volume on the CME exchange fell by 23.5% to $175bn, the lowest monthly volume since October 2024. CME's market share among derivatives exchanges dropped from 4.63% to 3.64%, suggesting declining institutional interest amid current macroeconomic conditions.
- Bybit Spot Market Share Slides in March: Spot trading volume on Bybit fell by 52.1% to $81.1bn in March, coinciding with decreased trading activity following the hack of the exchange's cold wallets in February. Bybit's spot market share dropped from 7.35% to 4.10%, its lowest since July 2023.
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