Bitcoin Eyes $139K by Year-End Amid Macro Resilience and On-Chain Strength: 21Shares

Bitcoin (BTC) could reach $138,555 by the end of 2025, according to a new 21Shares analysis of historical trends and current market signals that shows the world’s largest cryptocurrency gaining strength from macroeconomic uncertainty and on-chain momentum.

The current market cycle resembles 2021, when a major shock — in that case, China’s mining ban — triggered a reset without upending the long-term bullish trend, according to the report. This time around, disillusionment with macro policy and rising global liquidity seem to be playing a similar role. Price action shows resilience, not fear, with bitcoin now trading around $84,400, up from $83,152 earlier this month.

What’s different now is how bitcoin responds to shocks. Market-wide collapses like Silicon Valley Bank’s failure no longer spark panic selling. Instead, these types of shocks increasingly reinforce the crypto’s role as a hedge against traditional finance risk, 21Shares argued. In countries like Argentina and Turkey, where inflation and currency devaluation persist, bitcoin adoption continues to grow.

Notably, recent crypto-native failures — like the Bybit hack — haven’t shaken investor faith in bitcoin itself. Unlike earlier cycles, the market now seems able to separate failures of centralized actors from the decentralized protocol’s value.

On-chain indicators, including accumulation trends and the behavior of long-term holders, suggest that Bitcoin is in a consolidation phase rather than approaching a top. Meanwhile, growing flows from spot ETFs, improving regulatory clarity and the asset’s integration with traditional finance are adding fuel to the current rally.

Though there’s still a chance of a pullback — possibly down to the 200-day moving average near $77,000 — the broader setup points toward continued growth. The projection of $138,555 would mark a 64% increase from current levels.

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