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Bitcoin's 200-Day Average Is Approaching a Record High; Here's Why It Matters
The 200-day simple moving average is one of the most widely tracked indicators of bitcoin's long-term trend.
Updated Apr 23, 2024, 6:38 p.m. Published Apr 23, 2024, 11:09 a.m.
- Bitcoin's 200-day average is on track to challenge its previous peak of $49,452 from February 2022.
- Past data show the most intense phase of the bull cycle unfolds after this average surpasses its previous peak.
Bitcoin's {{BTC}} price moved into bullish territory above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) in October, setting record highs above $73,000 last month.
Now, the average, a crucial barometer of long-term trends, is also rising fast in a sign of strong bullish momentum and appears set to surpass its previous peak of $49,452 in February 2022. At press time, bitcoin traded at $66,200, with the 200-day average at $47,909.
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That's noteworthy for traders as past data show the most intense phase of the bullish cycle unfolds after the average surpasses its previous peak to new lifetime highs.
In early November 2020, six months after the third halving, bitcoin's 200-day SMA rose to its then-highest above $10,320. By mid-April 2021, bitcoin had rallied 4.5 times to $63,800.
The cryptocurrency surged over 2000% to nearly $20,000 in 12 months after the average set new highs in December 2016, or five months after the second halving. A similar meteoric rally unfolded after the average rose to a new peak in November 2012, around the time of the first halving.
As always, past data is no guarantee of future results.
That said, some features of the past cycles have been repeated to a T. For instance, BTC's bear market climaxed in November 2022, and prices rose in subsequent months, which aligns with the historical pattern of bottoming out to start a new rally 15 months ahead of the halving. Bitcoin blockchain implemented the fourth mining reward halving on Saturday, reducing the per-block coin emission to 3.125 BTC from 6.25 BTC.
Most analysts are of the view that rising government debt concerns will eventually force the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates rapidly, keeping risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, in an uptrend.
In the short term, however, prices may drop due to profit-taking and volatility in bond markets.
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Exchange Review - March 2025
CoinDesk Data's monthly Exchange Review captures the key developments within the cryptocurrency exchange market. The report includes analyses that relate to exchange volumes, crypto derivatives trading, market segmentation by fees, fiat trading, and more.
Ce qu'il:
Trading activity softened in March as market uncertainty grew amid escalating tariff tensions between the U.S. and global trading partners. Centralized exchanges recorded their lowest combined trading volume since October, declining 6.24% to $6.79tn. This marked the third consecutive monthly decline across both market segments, with spot trading volume falling 14.1% to $1.98tn and derivatives trading slipping 2.56% to $4.81tn.
- Trading Volumes Decline for Third Consecutive Month: Combined spot and derivatives trading volume on centralized exchanges fell by 6.24% to $6.79tn in March 2025, reaching the lowest level since October. Both spot and derivatives markets recorded their third consecutive monthly decline, falling 14.1% and 2.56% to $1.98tn and $4.81tn respectively.
- Institutional Crypto Trading Volume on CME Falls 23.5%: In March, total derivatives trading volume on the CME exchange fell by 23.5% to $175bn, the lowest monthly volume since October 2024. CME's market share among derivatives exchanges dropped from 4.63% to 3.64%, suggesting declining institutional interest amid current macroeconomic conditions.
- Bybit Spot Market Share Slides in March: Spot trading volume on Bybit fell by 52.1% to $81.1bn in March, coinciding with decreased trading activity following the hack of the exchange's cold wallets in February. Bybit's spot market share dropped from 7.35% to 4.10%, its lowest since July 2023.
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Ce qu'il:
- Ethena's USDe becomes fifth stablecoin to surpass $10 billion market cap in just 609 days, while Tether's dominance continues to slip.
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