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Bitcoin's True Capitulation Zone Is $65K, Says Well-Followed Analyst
That level represents the average investor’s cost basis, said James Check, who expects the $50,000 area to offer strong long-term support.
Updated Apr 16, 2025, 5:13 p.m. Published Apr 16, 2025, 2:47 p.m.
What to know:
- Long-term holders could face unrealized losses if bitcoin drops to the $65K "true market mean," said analyst James Check.
- A $1 trillion market cap for bitcoin — a price of about $50,000 — should be a strong area of suuport.
While acknowledging it's possible that level has already been hit, on-chain analyst James Check suggested a true bottom may not be in place until after bitcoin suffers a true capitulation event.
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That would likely require a decline to the $65,000 area, said Check, calling it the "true market mean," i.e., the average cost basis for active investors.
At that point according to Check, who spoke on the TFTC podcast, the average investor may begin to feel the pressure of unrealized losses. Even long-term holders, including those who have held bitcoin for five years, could find themselves underwater. Interestingly, this price level aligns closely with Michael Saylor’s Strategy, which has a similar cost basis of around $67,500.
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Where does capitulation take the market?
While Check expects sizable declines from the $65,000 area, he sees strong support in the $49,000-$50,000 range, those prices representing the launch of the ETFs in 2024 as well as a $1 trillion market cap for bitcoin. A drop to as low as $40,000 seems unlikely, he said, barring a global recession.
Check also took note of the extended period of "chopsolidation" in 2024 — where bitcoin traded for months in a wide range between $50K and $70K — as establishing a strong foundation of support.
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Trading activity softened in March as market uncertainty grew amid escalating tariff tensions between the U.S. and global trading partners. Centralized exchanges recorded their lowest combined trading volume since October, declining 6.24% to $6.79tn. This marked the third consecutive monthly decline across both market segments, with spot trading volume falling 14.1% to $1.98tn and derivatives trading slipping 2.56% to $4.81tn.
- Trading Volumes Decline for Third Consecutive Month: Combined spot and derivatives trading volume on centralized exchanges fell by 6.24% to $6.79tn in March 2025, reaching the lowest level since October. Both spot and derivatives markets recorded their third consecutive monthly decline, falling 14.1% and 2.56% to $1.98tn and $4.81tn respectively.
- Institutional Crypto Trading Volume on CME Falls 23.5%: In March, total derivatives trading volume on the CME exchange fell by 23.5% to $175bn, the lowest monthly volume since October 2024. CME's market share among derivatives exchanges dropped from 4.63% to 3.64%, suggesting declining institutional interest amid current macroeconomic conditions.
- Bybit Spot Market Share Slides in March: Spot trading volume on Bybit fell by 52.1% to $81.1bn in March, coinciding with decreased trading activity following the hack of the exchange's cold wallets in February. Bybit's spot market share dropped from 7.35% to 4.10%, its lowest since July 2023.
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