Bitcoin Has a Lot Going for It, Except the Persistent Slide in Copper-Gold Ratio
BTC's best years have been characterized by copper's outperformance relative to gold.
- The widely-tracked copper-to-gold ratio continues to slide in the wake of China's stimulus announcements, offering negative cues to risk assets.
- BTC's best years have been characterized by copper's outperformance relative to gold.
From the increasing probability of pro-crypto Republican candidate Donald Trump winning the upcoming U.S. presidential election to expectations for Fed rate cuts, bitcoin {{BTC}} bulls have several things to cheer about. However, the widely-tracked copper-to-gold ratio, continues to slide, flashing a red signal for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
The ratio, which represents the division of price per pound of copper by per ounce price of gold, has hit a fresh year-to-date low, reaching the levels seen in late 2020, according to data source TradingView.
The metric, considered a proxy for the global economic health and investor risk appetite, has dropped over 15% this year, the biggest loss since 2018.
Telltale sign of economic malaise?
What's probably more concerning is that the ratio has declined by 10% since China, the world's factory and largest importer of commodities, unveiled a string of stimulus measures in late September to support its ailing economy.
The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered an outsized 50 basis points interest rate cut in September, supposedly kicking off the so-called liquidity easing. However, that too failed to put a floor under the ratio.
The persistent slide could be a telltale sign of a grittier economic picture that risk assets are probably overlooking. Copper, being an industrial metal, tends to do well when the global economy is expanding, and has historically reacted positively to China's stimulus announcements. Gold, meanwhile, is considered a safe haven. Hence, a falling copper-to-gold ratio is widely seen as a risk-off signal.
BTC vs copper-to-gold ratio
As of writing, BTC was up 60% for the year, trading near $67,800, according to CoinDesk data.
However, most gains occurred in the first quarter and since then, the bulls have consistently failed to secure a new base above the $70,000 mark. The bull failure has been attributed to several factors, including supply overhang fears stemming from defunct exchange Mt. Gox's credit reimbursements.
Coincidentally, the slide in the copper-to-gold ratio began in May, offering risk-off cues. The downtrend gathered steam in July, presaging the brief early August risk aversion in financial markets that saw BTC slide from $65,000 to $50,000.
Besides, data from TradingView show that BTC's best years – 2013, 2016-17, and 2020-21 – have been characterized by an uptrend in the copper-to-gold ratio.
If the past is a guide, the plummeting copper-to-gold ratio casts doubt on bullish BTC expectations, calling for a rally to $100,000 by the year's end.

More For You
Exchange Review - March 2025

CoinDesk Data's monthly Exchange Review captures the key developments within the cryptocurrency exchange market. The report includes analyses that relate to exchange volumes, crypto derivatives trading, market segmentation by fees, fiat trading, and more.
What to know:
Trading activity softened in March as market uncertainty grew amid escalating tariff tensions between the U.S. and global trading partners. Centralized exchanges recorded their lowest combined trading volume since October, declining 6.24% to $6.79tn. This marked the third consecutive monthly decline across both market segments, with spot trading volume falling 14.1% to $1.98tn and derivatives trading slipping 2.56% to $4.81tn.
- Trading Volumes Decline for Third Consecutive Month: Combined spot and derivatives trading volume on centralized exchanges fell by 6.24% to $6.79tn in March 2025, reaching the lowest level since October. Both spot and derivatives markets recorded their third consecutive monthly decline, falling 14.1% and 2.56% to $1.98tn and $4.81tn respectively.
- Institutional Crypto Trading Volume on CME Falls 23.5%: In March, total derivatives trading volume on the CME exchange fell by 23.5% to $175bn, the lowest monthly volume since October 2024. CME's market share among derivatives exchanges dropped from 4.63% to 3.64%, suggesting declining institutional interest amid current macroeconomic conditions.
- Bybit Spot Market Share Slides in March: Spot trading volume on Bybit fell by 52.1% to $81.1bn in March, coinciding with decreased trading activity following the hack of the exchange's cold wallets in February. Bybit's spot market share dropped from 7.35% to 4.10%, its lowest since July 2023.
More For You
This article is created to test tags being added to image overlays

Dek: This article is created to test tags being added to image overlays
What to know:
- Ethena's USDe becomes fifth stablecoin to surpass $10 billion market cap in just 609 days, while Tether's dominance continues to slip.