Bitcoin Trades Flat While Altcoins Tease Bull Breakout

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• Bitcoin is lacking clear directional bias for a ninth straight day, neutralizing the bullish view put forward by a long-tailed doji candle created on Feb. 27. As a result, a return to levels below $3,700 cannot be ruled out.
• A UTC close above the March 9 high of $3,950 would revive the short-term bullish outlook and possibly yield a rally toward the recent high of $4,190.
• While a few alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins) have recently witnessed a longer-term bull reversal, the altcoin market as a whole is yet to exit the bear market. That could be about to change, though, as there are growing signs of seller exhaustion.
• A bull breakout in the altcoin market would be confirmed if and when the overall altcoin market capitalization beats the long-term falling trendline resistance, currently at $64.28 billion.

Bitcoin's struggle for direction continues amid growing signs of a bull reversal in alternative cryptocurrencies.

The leading cryptocurrency by market value is trapped in the range of $3,800 to $3,900 for a ninth straight day, contradicting the quick move toward the recent high of $4,190 suggested by the long-tailed doji candle created on Feb. 27. The immediate outlook, therefore, is neutral.

As of writing, the cryptocurrency is flatlined at $3,847 on Bitstamp, representing a 0.10 percent gain on a 24-hour basis.

Further, BTC is reporting a meager 4 percent gain on a year-to-date (YTD) basis, as opposed to stellar gains in few altcoins. For instance, litecoin, the fourth largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, is currently up 83.9 percent on a YTD basis.

BNB$967.23 and holochain (HOT) are up at least 140 percent each, while EOS$0.2507 and ONT$0.08186 have gained 40 percent and 69 percent, respectively, according to OnChainFX.

Meanwhile, both the BTC and USD pairs of LTC, BNB, TRX$0.2850 and MKR$1,212.70 have found acceptance above their respective 200-day moving average (MA) – a widely followed barometer of bull/bear markets.

As a result, speculation that the altcoin market has entered the bull market is gathering steam. However, while few alternative cryptocurrencies seem to have witnessed a bull reversal, the altcoin market as a whole is yet to violate the bearish trend, as seen in the chart below.

Altcoin market cap

On the weekly chart, the altcoin market capitalization (market cap) printed a higher low near $45 billion in early February, signaling bearish exhaustion. However, the trendline connecting January 2018 and April 2018 highs is still intact.

A weekly close (Sunday, UTC) above $64.28 billion (trendline resistance) could be considered an early sign of longer-term bullish reversal.

A bearish-to-bullish trend change, however, would be confirmed, if and when, the market cap jumps above $68.61 billion – a bearish lower high created on Dec. 24.

Bitcoin's daily chart

The week-long price consolidation in the range of $3,800-$3,900 seen in the above chart has weakened the bullish case put forward by the long-tailed doji candle created on Feb. 27. As a result, the 100-day MA support at $3,670 could again come into play.

On the higher side, a UTC close above $3,950 is needed to revive the short-term bullish outlook.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image

via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View