Lesser-Known Bitcoin Indicator Signals Onset of Major Bull Run
The "reserve-risk" indicator has been historically reliable.
A lesser-known but historically reliable bitcoin price indicator has flipped positive, signaling the onset of a major bull market.
Bitcoin's (BTC) reserve-risk multiple has crossed above zero, turning positive for the first time since October 2021, according to blockchain analytics firm Glassnode.
The previous crossovers above zero paved the way for parabolic price rallies. "In 2012, 2013, 2015, 2019 and 2020, it resulted in gains of 2,830%, 566%, 6,400%, 99% and 487%, respectively," on-chain analyst Ali Martinez tweeted Monday.
Glassnode defines reserve risk as a long-term cyclical indicator, comparing the incentive to sell at the going market price with long-term holders resisting the temptation to liquidate. A lower reading indicates strong conviction among "HODLers" – slang for long-term crypto investors – and vice versa.
The reserve-risk multiple is calculated by dividing the daily indicator value by its 365-day moving average.
The reserve-risk multiple's previous crossovers above and below zero accurately predicted major bullish and bearish trends.
If history is a guide, the latest positive crossover means the cryptocurrency's 80% year-to-date rally to 10-month highs above $30,000 may be only the first milestone in its upward journey.
The bullish implication is consistent with bitcoin's tendency to chalk up outsized rallies in the months leading up to the mining reward halving. This programmed code reduces the pace of the cryptocurrency's supply expansion by 50% every four years. Bitcoin's fourth reward halving is due in April next year.
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CoinDesk Data's monthly Exchange Review captures the key developments within the cryptocurrency exchange market. The report includes analyses that relate to exchange volumes, crypto derivatives trading, market segmentation by fees, fiat trading, and more.
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Trading activity softened in March as market uncertainty grew amid escalating tariff tensions between the U.S. and global trading partners. Centralized exchanges recorded their lowest combined trading volume since October, declining 6.24% to $6.79tn. This marked the third consecutive monthly decline across both market segments, with spot trading volume falling 14.1% to $1.98tn and derivatives trading slipping 2.56% to $4.81tn.
- Trading Volumes Decline for Third Consecutive Month: Combined spot and derivatives trading volume on centralized exchanges fell by 6.24% to $6.79tn in March 2025, reaching the lowest level since October. Both spot and derivatives markets recorded their third consecutive monthly decline, falling 14.1% and 2.56% to $1.98tn and $4.81tn respectively.
- Institutional Crypto Trading Volume on CME Falls 23.5%: In March, total derivatives trading volume on the CME exchange fell by 23.5% to $175bn, the lowest monthly volume since October 2024. CME's market share among derivatives exchanges dropped from 4.63% to 3.64%, suggesting declining institutional interest amid current macroeconomic conditions.
- Bybit Spot Market Share Slides in March: Spot trading volume on Bybit fell by 52.1% to $81.1bn in March, coinciding with decreased trading activity following the hack of the exchange's cold wallets in February. Bybit's spot market share dropped from 7.35% to 4.10%, its lowest since July 2023.
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