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Goldman Sachs Sees Fed Delivering First Rate Cut in Q3 2024: Reuters
The Fed's benchmark interest-rate range is currently 5.25% to 5.5%.
Investment banking giant Goldman Sachs brought forward its estimate for the Federal Reserve's first interest-rate cut to third-quarter 2024 from a previous forecast of the fourth quarter, Reuters reported Monday.
The shift comes as bitcoin [BTC] and the broader crypto market has surged in recent weeks on a bullish cocktail of an expected spot ETF launch in the U.S., the impending Bitcoin mining reward halving and the decline in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, the so-called risk-free rate.
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The Fed's benchmark interest rate is currently 5.25% to 5.5%, with traders of the Fed funds futures anticipating a decline to a range starting at 4% by the end of the next year.
When interest rates drop, borrowing becomes cheaper, spurring risk-taking in the economy and financial markets, including cryptocurrencies. The opposite happens when rates rise rapidly, as observed in 2022.
The Fed kicked off its tightening cycle in March 2022 to tame inflation, raising rates from as low as 0%-0.25% with the most recent increase occurring in July. The rapid rise in borrowing costs weighed on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, last year.
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Exchange Review - March 2025
CoinDesk Data's monthly Exchange Review captures the key developments within the cryptocurrency exchange market. The report includes analyses that relate to exchange volumes, crypto derivatives trading, market segmentation by fees, fiat trading, and more.
What to know:
Trading activity softened in March as market uncertainty grew amid escalating tariff tensions between the U.S. and global trading partners. Centralized exchanges recorded their lowest combined trading volume since October, declining 6.24% to $6.79tn. This marked the third consecutive monthly decline across both market segments, with spot trading volume falling 14.1% to $1.98tn and derivatives trading slipping 2.56% to $4.81tn.
- Trading Volumes Decline for Third Consecutive Month: Combined spot and derivatives trading volume on centralized exchanges fell by 6.24% to $6.79tn in March 2025, reaching the lowest level since October. Both spot and derivatives markets recorded their third consecutive monthly decline, falling 14.1% and 2.56% to $1.98tn and $4.81tn respectively.
- Institutional Crypto Trading Volume on CME Falls 23.5%: In March, total derivatives trading volume on the CME exchange fell by 23.5% to $175bn, the lowest monthly volume since October 2024. CME's market share among derivatives exchanges dropped from 4.63% to 3.64%, suggesting declining institutional interest amid current macroeconomic conditions.
- Bybit Spot Market Share Slides in March: Spot trading volume on Bybit fell by 52.1% to $81.1bn in March, coinciding with decreased trading activity following the hack of the exchange's cold wallets in February. Bybit's spot market share dropped from 7.35% to 4.10%, its lowest since July 2023.
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What to know:
- Ethena's USDe becomes fifth stablecoin to surpass $10 billion market cap in just 609 days, while Tether's dominance continues to slip.
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