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Bitcoin Closing In on Historic Breakout vs Nasdaq

Bitcoin continues to outperform traditional tech benchmarks, signaling a potential shift in market leadership as correlations weaken.

By James Van Straten|Edited by Omkar Godbole

Updated Apr 23, 2025, 3:02 p.m. Published Apr 22, 2025, 8:58 a.m.

What to know:

BTC/Nasdaq ratio nears all-time high, with bitcoin down just 6% YTD vs. Nasdaq's 15% decline.
Strategy outpaces QQQ ETF, up 6% in 2025 while QQQ slumps 15%, reinforcing BTC’s relative strength.

Bitcoin (BTC) is on the cusp of breaking out relative to the Nasdaq 100 Composite, with the current BTC/Nasdaq ratio sitting at 4.96. This means it now takes nearly five Nasdaq units to match the value of one bitcoin. The previous record of 5.08 was set in January 2025, when bitcoin hit its all-time high of over $109,000.

Historically, each market cycle has seen the ratio reach new highs—2017, 2021, and now 2025—highlighting bitcoin’s continued outperformance against the Nasdaq.

Across multiple timeframes, bitcoin is increasingly diverging from U.S. tech stocks. Year-to-date, bitcoin is down just 6%, compared to the Nasdaq’s 15% decline. Since Donald Trump’s election victory in November 2024, bitcoin has rallied 30%, while the Nasdaq has fallen 12%.

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When measured against the "Magnificent Seven" mega-cap tech stocks, bitcoin remains around 20% below its all-time high from February this year. This indicates that while bitcoin has shown strength, the top tech names are holding up better than the broader Nasdaq Composite.

Strategy (MSTR), a well-known proxy for bitcoin exposure, is also holding up better than the U.S tech stocks. Since joining the QQQ ETF on Dec. 23, MSTR is down 11%, while the ETF itself has dropped over 16%. The divergence has become more pronounced in 2025: MSTR is up 6% year-to-date, compared to QQQ’s 15% decline.

Nasdaq Bitcoin

James Van Straten

James Van Straten is a Senior Analyst at CoinDesk, specializing in Bitcoin and its interplay with the macroeconomic environment. Previously, James worked as a Research Analyst at Saidler & Co., a Swiss hedge fund, where he developed expertise in on-chain analytics. His work focuses on monitoring flows to analyze Bitcoin's role within the broader financial system.

In addition to his professional endeavors, James serves as an advisor to Coinsilium, a UK publicly traded company, where he provides guidance on their Bitcoin treasury strategy. He also holds investments in Bitcoin, MicroStrategy (MSTR), and Semler Scientific (SMLR).