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How the Prediction Markets Are Wagering on Canada’s Election

The odds favor a Trudeau reelection but not a Liberal majority, according to prices on blockchain-based Polymarket and centralized platform PredictIt.

By Lawrence Lewitinn
Updated May 11, 2023, 5:19 p.m. Published Sep 19, 2021, 3:50 p.m.
Erin O'Toole, leader of Canada's Conservative Party, left, debates Justin Trudeau, Canada's prime minister, during a federal leaders' debate in Gatineau, Quebec, Canada, on Wednesday, Sept. 8, 2021. It will be a tight race between Prime Minister Trudeau and Tory Leader O'Toole as the campaigns enter the final stretch ahead of the Sept. 20 vote, which the Liberals triggered in hopes of regaining the parliamentary majority they lost in 2019's election. (Justin Tang/Canadian Press/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Erin O'Toole, leader of Canada's Conservative Party, left, debates Justin Trudeau, Canada's prime minister, during a federal leaders' debate in Gatineau, Quebec, Canada, on Wednesday, Sept. 8, 2021. It will be a tight race between Prime Minister Trudeau and Tory Leader O'Toole as the campaigns enter the final stretch ahead of the Sept. 20 vote, which the Liberals triggered in hopes of regaining the parliamentary majority they lost in 2019's election. (Justin Tang/Canadian Press/Bloomberg via Getty Images)