Bitcoin $120K Target for 2Q May Be Too Conservative: Standard Chartered
Spot bitcoin ETF net inflows totaled over $4 billion in the last three weeks, when adjusted for hedge fund basis trades, the bank said.
What to know:
- Standard Chartered said its second-quarter bitcoin price target of $120,000 may be too low.
- Spot bitcoin ETF net inflows were more than $4 billion in the last three weeks, when adjusted for hedge fund basis trades, the bank said.
- Strategy's bitcoin stash could grow to over 6% of the crypto's total future supply, analyst Geoff Kendrick wrote.
Bitcoin (BTC) is poised to hit a new record high, with investment flows now the dominant market driver, according to Standard Chartered (STAN).
U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen $5.3 billion in inflows over the past three weeks, the investment bank said in emailed comments Thursday.
Adjusting for hedge fund basis trades, net real flow is estimated at over $4 billion, the bank said. The basis trade is a strategy that exploits the difference between the spot price of bitcoin and the price of the cryptocurrency in the futures market.
Strategy (MSTR) has increased its holdings to 555,450 BTC, or 2.6% of total future supply, which is locked at 21 million BTC. The company's plan to raise $84 billion to buy more of the world's largest cryptocurrency could bring its stash to over 6%, wrote Geoff Kendrick, head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered.
Next week’s 13F filings may reveal further institutional adoption, Standard Chartered said. Abu Dhabi’s sovereign fund already holds BlackRock's bitcoin ETF (IBIT), and both the Swiss National Bank and Norges Bank have disclosed positions in MSTR.
New Hampshire passed a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve bill this week, the first U.S. state to do so, which signals growing policy alignment, the report added.
Given these developments, a second-quarter bitcoin target of $120,000 may be too conservative, the bank said, citing its previous forecast.
The bank has a year-end bitcoin price target of $200,000.
The world's largest cryptocurrency was trading around $101,000 at publication time.
Read more: Bitcoin to Hit New All-Time High Around $120K in Q2, Standard Chartered Says
Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.
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Exchange Review - March 2025
CoinDesk Data's monthly Exchange Review captures the key developments within the cryptocurrency exchange market. The report includes analyses that relate to exchange volumes, crypto derivatives trading, market segmentation by fees, fiat trading, and more.
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Trading activity softened in March as market uncertainty grew amid escalating tariff tensions between the U.S. and global trading partners. Centralized exchanges recorded their lowest combined trading volume since October, declining 6.24% to $6.79tn. This marked the third consecutive monthly decline across both market segments, with spot trading volume falling 14.1% to $1.98tn and derivatives trading slipping 2.56% to $4.81tn.
- Trading Volumes Decline for Third Consecutive Month: Combined spot and derivatives trading volume on centralized exchanges fell by 6.24% to $6.79tn in March 2025, reaching the lowest level since October. Both spot and derivatives markets recorded their third consecutive monthly decline, falling 14.1% and 2.56% to $1.98tn and $4.81tn respectively.
- Institutional Crypto Trading Volume on CME Falls 23.5%: In March, total derivatives trading volume on the CME exchange fell by 23.5% to $175bn, the lowest monthly volume since October 2024. CME's market share among derivatives exchanges dropped from 4.63% to 3.64%, suggesting declining institutional interest amid current macroeconomic conditions.
- Bybit Spot Market Share Slides in March: Spot trading volume on Bybit fell by 52.1% to $81.1bn in March, coinciding with decreased trading activity following the hack of the exchange's cold wallets in February. Bybit's spot market share dropped from 7.35% to 4.10%, its lowest since July 2023.
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