Election 2024


Analyses

No, Polymarket Whales Aren't Evidence of Prediction Market Manipulation

If you think the Trump bulls are wrong, bet against them.

(Ed Lyman/NOAA)

Marchés

U.S. Election Betting: Kalshi's Polymarket Rival Quickly Gets Traction

In just three weeks, Kalshi's presidential prediction market has passed $30M in volume. It still trails the $2 billion traded on Polymarket since January.

MIAMI, FLORIDA - OCTOBER 21: A person wears an 'I Voted' sticker after casting their ballot in a polling station as early voting begins on October 21, 2024, in Miami, Florida. Early voting runs from Oct. 21 through Nov. 3 in Miami-Dade and Broward. People head to the polls to decide, among other races, the next president of the United States. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

Marchés

Republican Sweep in U.S. Election Would be the Most Bullish Outcome for Coinbase and the Crypto Market: Citi

Republican control of the Senate would be key to passing bills such as FIT21 and appointing pro-crypto agency leaders, and digital asset reform would likely happen sooner with both chambers aligned, the report said.

Trump sending bitcoin transaction at PubKey bar in NYC (Fox News/Modified by CoinDesk)

Juridique

U.S. Election Betting: Federal Court 'Erred' in Letting Kalshi Launch Prediction Markets, CFTC Says

The regulator filed its opening brief in its appeals case to tamp down on political event contracts.

DOYLESTOWN, PENNSYLVANIA - OCTOBER 15: Rich Kampert, 71, votes using an absentee or mail-in ballot on October 15, 2024 in Doylestown, Pennsylvania. Registered voters in Pennsylvania can vote "On Demand" by requesting, a mail-in or absentee ballot filing it out and dropping it off all in one visit to their county election office or other designated location. (Photo by Hannah Beier/Getty Images)

Marchés

Kalshi Finds 'Widespread Evidence' of Strong Republican Momentum in U.S. Elections

A note from Kalshi's market research team suggests the prediction market - polls gap can be explained by Harris' sliding popularity with key demographics.

Donald J. Trump at a rally (Gerd Altmann, modified by CoinDesk)

Analyses

Editorial: We Applaud Trump’s Crypto Efforts Though His Record, Rhetoric Raise Red Flags

The former president deserves credit for making crypto a campaign issue. We wish his opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, would say more about it.

Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris (Win McNamee/Getty Images)

Juridique

Kamala Harris Speech Offers No Further Details on Crypto 'Regulatory Framework'

The vice president touted her "opportunity agenda" but did not drill down on what it would mean for digital assets during an appearance in Erie, Pa.

Vice President Kamala Harris (Brandon Bell/Getty Images)

Marchés

Does World Liberty Financial Count as Trump 'Launching a Coin'? Polymarket Bettors Are Divided

Plus, a look at how PoliFi tokens are doing compared to prediction markets; there might be another #election2024 up north.

PRESCOTT VALLEY, ARIZONA - OCTOBER 13: U.S. Republican presidential nominee, former President Donald Trump dances during a campaign rally at Findlay Toyota Center on October 13, 2024 in Prescott Valley, Arizona. With leaders of the Border Patrol union in attendance, Trump pledged to hire 10,000 additional border patrol agents if reelected, intensifying his attacks on Democratic opponent Kamala Harris on the issue.  (Photo by Rebecca Noble/Getty Images)

Finance

Trump-Supported World Liberty Financial Will Start Public Token Sale Next Week

The WLFI token sale will be open for everyone who has been qualified through the project's whitelist.

Screen grab from Trump's teaser of the new World Liberty Financial crypto company (Rug Radio, modified by CoinDesk using PhotoMosh)

Marchés

Trump's Lead Over Harris Widens on Polymarket's Prediction Market

His odds of winning the U.S. presidential election have soared to a more than two-month high.

Donald Trump has pulled ahead of Kamala Harris on Polymarket. (Scott Olson/Getty Images)