Polymarket


Markets

U.S. Recession Odds Surge in Prediction Markets on Tariff Shock. What Next for BTC?

Traders on Polymarket and Kalshi are pricing in an over-50% chance of a U.S. recession this year.

U.S. recession in 2025? (Polymarket)

Markets

Polymarket, UMA Communities Lock Horns After $7M Ukraine Bet Resolves

The bet was resolved as 'yes' despite no official agreement, leading to suspicions of manipulation by a large UMA token holder, but Polymarket defended the UMA voting process.

Ukraine

Markets

A Contentious Ukraine Bet Leads to Clash Between Polymarket, UMA Communities

BornTooLate.Eth has accumulated over 1.3 million UMA tokens to attack a Ukraine-themed market — but nobody has appeared to have made much money.

Photo of a hand painted in blue and yellow.

Markets

Polymarket is 90% Accurate in Predicting World Events: Research

Research shows that Polymarket is 90% accurate in predicting how events will occur one month out, and 94% four hours before the event occurs.

Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan (Polymarket)

Markets

Polymarket Traders Bet on Canadian Tariff Cuts After Lutnick Hints at Negotiations

Howard Lutnick told Fox Business that President Donald Trump is willing to 'meet in the middle' on tariffs, but not eliminate them entirely – yet.

Howard Lutnick (Danny Nelson/CoinDesk)

Markets

Polymarket Bettors Punt $1.1B on Superbowl Results, Despite Regulatory Overhang

The Philadelphia Eagles won the Superbowl, but the Kansas City Chiefs were the early favorite on Polymarket.

A football placed on a field. (Dave Adamson/Unsplash)

Policy

Trump's CFTC Head Slams Prediction Markets Resistance Under Predecessor

Caroline Pham, the agency's acting chairman, is scheduling an experts roundtable to reset the CFTC's course on this "sinkhole of legal uncertainty."

Caroline Pham, acting chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Policy

Polymarket's Customer Data Sought by CFTC Subpoena of Coinbase, Source Says

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission is said to be seeking information about customers' interactions with the prediction market site Polymarket.

U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Rostin Behnam

Tech

Shayne Coplan: He Took Prediction Markets Mainstream

In so doing, Polymarket's founder demonstrated a real-world consumer use case for crypto, earning him a spot on CoinDesk's Most Influential 2024 list.

(Pudgy Peguins)

Videos

The Dark Side of Crypto

HTX, the crypto exchange advised by Justin Sun, recently redeemed over 5100 wrapped bitcoins worth about $500 million, though HTX’s proof-of-reserves don’t include any WBTC at all. Plus, the mudslinging between Polymarket and Kalshi, and Pump.fun disabled its livestream feature amid disturbing shock videos. "CoinDesk Daily" host Christine Lee breaks down the biggest headlines in the crypto industry today.

The Dark Side of Crypto