Prediction Markets


Finanças

Polymarket, Prediction Betting Markets Vindicated by Trump's Strong Showing

Tuesday night's election returns were a shocker if you only watched CNN. But not if you'd looked at the betting all along.

Polymarket founder and CEO Shayne Coplan at CoinDesk's Consensus 2024.

Finanças

U.S. Election Betting: Polymarket 'Manipulation' Claims Miss the Mark

The manipulation narrative is an attempt by mainstream media to discredit Polymarket’s election odds and control the narrative, one expert said.

WASHINGTON, DC - NOVEMBER 03:  People cast their votes at an early voting site at the Martin Luther King Jr. Memorial Library on November 03, 2024 in Washington, DC. The Nation’s Capitol is bracing for protests and potential unrest with a contentious Election Day looming on the horizon. (Kent Nishimura/Getty Images)

Mercados

If U.S. Election Is Disputed, Prediction Markets Could Face 'Hornet's Nest'

How will Polymarket and Kalshi resolve their presidential contracts if there's another Jan. 6 or Bush v. Gore situation?

FILE - In this Nov. 4, 1948, file photo, President Harry S. Truman at St. Louis' Union Station holds up an election day edition of the Chicago Daily Tribune, which - based on early results - mistakenly announced "Dewey Defeats Truman." (AP Photo/Byron Rollins)

Finanças

Fortune Claims Polymarket Is 'Rife' With Wash Trading

As much as a third of the prediction market's volume is inflated by traders acting as the buyer and seller — an illegal practice in TradFi — on the same trades, Fortune reported. Some could be doing it to farm a future token airdrop.

Funny portrait of a welsh corgi pembroke dog showering with shampoo.  Dog taking a bubble bath in grooming salon.

Finanças

Prediction Market Kalshi to Supply Price Data for Crypto Oracle Stork

Separately, Kalshi has also begun accepting deposits of the USDC stablecoin, Fortune reported.

Stork Labs founder Meredith Pitkoff (Stork Labs)

Tecnologia

Polymarket Is a Success for Polygon Blockchain – Everywhere But the Bottom Line

One of the major breakout successes this year for the team behind layer-2 blockchain Polygon is Polymarket. But according to data, Polymarket has only brought in about $27,000 of transaction fees for Polygon PoS in 2024.

Cumulative gas fees Polymarket on Polygon PoS in 2024 have totaled just over $27,000 this year, through Oct. 23. (Token Terminal)

Política

Activist Group Says Kalshi’s Election Market Should Be Shut Due to 'Manipulative' Whales

Better Markets is using Polymarket's "French connection" as ammo against the prediction market's regulated competitor.

Los Angeles, CA - March 05: A poll worker moves a ballot box as voters to arrive and cast ballots inside the cavernous lobby of the Metro Headquarters Building on Tuesday, March 5, 2024 in Los Angeles, CA. (Brian van der Brug / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images)

Mercados

Trump Polymarket Odds Briefly Dip After His No. 2 Bull Adds Bet on Harris

The former president's probability of retaking the White House slid to 59% Wednesday before rebounding.

GREENSBORO, NORTH CAROLINA - OCTOBER 22: Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump dances on stage after speaking at a campaign rally at the Greensboro Coliseum on October 22, 2024 in Greensboro, North Carolina. With 14 days to go until Election Day, Trump continues to crisscross the country campaigning to return to office. (Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

Opinião

No, Polymarket Whales Aren't Evidence of Prediction Market Manipulation

If you think the Trump bulls are wrong, bet against them.

(Ed Lyman/NOAA)

Mercados

U.S. Election Betting: Kalshi's Polymarket Rival Quickly Gets Traction

In just three weeks, Kalshi's presidential prediction market has passed $30M in volume. It still trails the $2 billion traded on Polymarket since January.

MIAMI, FLORIDA - OCTOBER 21: A person wears an 'I Voted' sticker after casting their ballot in a polling station as early voting begins on October 21, 2024, in Miami, Florida. Early voting runs from Oct. 21 through Nov. 3 in Miami-Dade and Broward. People head to the polls to decide, among other races, the next president of the United States. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)