Prediction Markets


Tech

Coinbase-Backed Vega Gets Into Prediction-Market Race, Chasing Polymarket

A major upgrade to Vega's blockchain and decentralized perpetuals exchange will allow users to bet on the outcomes of future events.

The rise of blockchain-based prediction markets has turned clairvoyance into a gambling activity. (Tomasz Lusiak/Creative Commons)

News Analysis

Harris Likely to Pick Pennsylvania Gov. Shapiro for Veep, Prediction Markets Say

Also: the Democrat gains on Trump but hasn't closed the gap, unlike in polls; Polymarket punters trade on Olympic women's boxing controversy.

AMBLER, PENNSYLVANIA - JULY 29: Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro speaks during a campaign rally for Vice President Kamala Harris on July 29, 2024 in Ambler, Pennsylvania. Shapiro and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer campaigned to bring supporters behind Vice President Harris's campaign to protect Americans' freedoms, lower costs for families, and slam Trump's Project 2025 agenda. (Photo by Hannah Beier/Getty Images)

Tech

Crypto VC Paradigm Invests in MetaDAO as Prediction Markets Boom

MetaDAO, a Solana experiment in governance by "futarchy," raised a total of $2.2 million to fund operations.

Sporting a black hoodie, the pseudonymous coder known as Proph3t works in a Salt Lake City hacker house. (Danny Nelson/CoinDesk)

Markets

Biden's Exit Spurs Record $28M Daily Volume on Polymarket as Election Enters Uncharted Territory

Bets on the U.S. presidential election winner rocketed past $300 million, while the punters have put $200 million in a market for the potential Democrat's nominee and $10 million for the party's VP.

Kamala Harris, the frontrunner for the Democratic presidential nomination after Joe Biden dropped out (Chris duMond/Getty Images)

Tech

The Protocol: Polymarket Feeds Political Junkies, With Nate Silver

In this week's issue of CoinDesk's blockchain tech newsletter, we look at the "alternative news source" that Polymarket's prediction-betting site has become.

(Andrew Haimerl/Unsplash)

Finance

Polymarket Hires Nate Silver After Taking in $265M of Bets on U.S. Election: Report

The crypto-based prediction market has taken more than $400 million in bets this year.

Nate Silver will now reportedly work for prediction market Polymarket. (Slaven Vlasic/Getty Images for AWXII)

Markets

Trump Odds on Polymarket Hit Another All-Time High After Vance VP Pick

With a millennial running mate, the former president now has a 72% chance of retaking the White House, traders on the crypto-based prediction market are signaling.

MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - JULY 15: (L-R) Tucker Carlson, U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL), Republican presidential candidate, former U.S. President Donald Trump,  Republican Vice Presidential candidate, U.S. Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH), and Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-LA) appear on the first day of the Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum on July 15, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Delegates, politicians, and the Republican faithful are in Milwaukee for the annual convention, concluding with former President Donald Trump accepting his party's presidential nomination. The RNC takes place from July 15-18. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

News Analysis

U.S. Secret Service Chief Probably Won't Be Fired, Polymarket Bets Signal

The shooting at Trump's rally created severe concerns with the Secret Service's planning. Plus: Another all-time high for Trump's odds of victory; bettors think BTC will continue green streak until end of week.

LAUREL, MARYLAND (May 10, 2024) Director of the United States Secret Service, Kimberly Cheatle, speaks during the Secret Service Wall of Honor Ceremony at the James J. Rowley Training Center in Laurel, Maryland. (DHS photo by Tia Dufour)

Markets

Trump's Odds of Victory Hit All-Time High on Polymarket After Shooting

The former president, who was injured at a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday, now has a 70% chance of retaking the White House, according to traders on the crypto-based prediction market. Trump-themed Polifi tokens and crypto broadly also rose.

BUTLER, PENNSYLVANIA - JULY 13: Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump pumps his fist as he is rushed offstage by U.S. Secret Service agents after being grazed by a bullet during a rally on July 13, 2024 in Butler, Pennsylvania. Butler County district attorney Richard Goldinger said the shooter is dead after injuring former U.S. President Donald Trump, killing one audience member and injuring another in the shooting. (Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

Markets

Biden Overtakes VP Harris as Likeliest Dem Nominee on Polymarket During President's Press Conference (Update)

The president said he plans to stay in the race but "it's important that I allay fears."

The first portrait of Joe Biden as president of the United States, 2021. (The White House)