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Prediction Markets
Prediction Market Kalshi Sues U.S. CFTC for Denying Its Contracts for Congressional Elections
The CFTC denied a valid hedging option when it rebuffed a plan to offer event contracts for traders to bet on political outcomes, the company said.
Americans (Seemingly) Aren't Allowed to Put This Economic Theory to the Test
The CFTC keeps putting fences around prediction markets, which some say are better way to aggregate information.
CFTC Denies Kalshi’s Plan to Let Users Bet on Control of U.S. Congress
U.S. federal regulators said the plans weren't in the "public interest," after a court squabble involving rival service PredictIt
BitMEX's Prediction Market Is Now Live
Current prediction market contracts revolve around FTX bankruptcy claim recoveries, the future of bitcoin ETFs, and Sam Bankman-Fried’s jail sentence.
CFTC Kicks Off Review of Kalshi's Congressional Control Prediction Markets
Kalshi wants to let users bet on which political party will control Congress after an election.
CFTC to Review Prediction Market Kalshi’s Contracts to Bet on Control of Congress
The U.S. derivatives regulator has scheduled a June 26 meeting to discuss starting another review to evaluate whether to approve Kalshi’s event contracts.
CFTC Staff Recommends Rejecting Kalshi's US Election Contracts: Bloomberg
Commissioners would still need to vote on the advice.
Prediction Market Kalshi Signals It Sees CFTC's Blessing for Midterm Election Bets
A countdown clock on its website ends today, indicating the service is optimistic regulators will let it offer contracts for the Nov. 8 election.
Crypto Predictions Site Polymarket Foresees Republicans Winning Both Senate and House
The site is giving an overall 64% chance to Republicans for taking control of Congress.
Crypto Predictions Site Polymarket Taking Bets on Whether Russia Will Use a Nuclear Weapon by 2023
Traders on Polymarket, which is not available to U.S. users, are putting a 6% probability of Russia doing so.
