Prediction Markets

Crypto-Friendly Sen. JD Vance's Odds as Trump VP Pick Double on Polymarket

Traders on the crypto-based prediction market now see a 29% chance that the Ohio Republican will be former President Trump’s running mate, up from 14% a week ago.

Автор Helene Braun8 июл. 2024 г.

Sen. JD Vance, right, with former U.S. President Donald Trump (Drew Angerer/Getty images)

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Prediction Markets and Polls Both Got the French Election Wrong

Plus: Polymarket traders remain skeptical about Biden's insistence he's staying in the U.S. presidential race; will ETH fall to $2,630?

Автор Sam Reynolds8 июл. 2024 г.

PARIS, FRANCE - JULY 07: People are seen celebrating on the statue of Marianne on the Place de la Republique to celebrate after the Nouveau Front Populaire, an alliance of left wing parties including the far-left wing party, La France Insoumise came in first on July 07, 2024 in Paris, France. The National Rally party was expected to have a strong showing in the second round of France's legislative election, which was called by the French president last month after his party performed poorly in the European election, but first projections have shown an unexpected lead for French left wing alliance New Popular Front. (Photo by Remon Haazen/Getty Images)

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Biden's Odds on Polymarket Little Changed After ABC TV Interview

The president's chances of reelection languished at 11% and his probability of dropping out lingered around 64%, according to traders on the crypto-based prediction market platform.

Автор Marc Hochstein6 июл. 2024 г.

MADISON, WISONSIN - JULY 05: (EDITOR’S NOTE: This Handout image was provided by a third-party organization and may not adhere to Getty Images’ editorial policy.) In this handout photo provided by ABC, U.S. President Joe Biden speaks with 'This Week' anchor George Stephanopoulos on July 05, 2024 in Madison, Wisconsin. The president sat down with Stephanopoulos while on the campaign trail in Wisconsin, a few days after a debate with former President Donald Trump. (Photo by ABC via Getty Images)

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Biden's Odds of Dropping Out Surge to Almost 80% on Polymarket After New York Times Report

It had been only 55% earlier in the day.

Автор Danny Nelson3 июл. 2024 г.

ATLANTA, GEORGIA - JUNE 27: U.S. President Joe Biden participates in the CNN Presidential Debate at the CNN Studios on June 27, 2024 in Atlanta, Georgia. President Biden and Republican presidential candidate, former U.S. President Donald Trump are facing off in the first presidential debate of the 2024 campaign. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

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Kamala Harris' Odds of Winning Democratic Nomination Surge on Polymarket

Supporters are calling on the vice president to step up following boss Biden's doddering debate debacle.

Автор Marc Hochstein2 июл. 2024 г.

COLLEGE PARK, MARYLAND - JUNE 24: U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris delivers remarks on reproductive rights at Ritchie Coliseum on the campus of the University of Maryland on June 24, 2024 in College Park, Maryland. Harris is speaking on the two year anniversary of the Dobbs decision, the Supreme Court ruling that overturned Roe v. Wade and struck down federal abortion protections. (Photo by Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)

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UPDATE: Polymarket Logs First $100M Month as Election Drama Heats Up

President Biden's blunders during last week's debate are the latest factor driving volume on the crypto-based prediction market.

Автор Sam Reynolds1 июл. 2024 г.

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UPDATE: Polymarket Says It's 'Conclusive' Barron Trump Was Involved in $DJT

Nearly all UMA token holders voted that Donald Trump's son Barron was not likely involved in the DJT meme coin. Polymarket says UMA got it wrong.

Автор Sam Reynolds27 июн. 2024 г.

Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan (Polymarket)

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Biden Likely to Win Popular Vote, but Lose Presidency, Prediction Market Signals

Plus: $DJT believers dispute the resolution of a Polymarket bet, insisting the "preponderance of evidence" shows Barron Trump's involvement.

Автор Marc Hochstein, Shaurya Malwa24 июн. 2024 г.

MEXICO CITY, MEXICO - JANUARY 09: U.S. President Joe Biden looks on during a welcome ceremony as part of the '2023 North American Leaders' Summit at Palacio Nacional on January 09, 2023 in Mexico City, Mexico. President Lopez Obrador, USA President Joe Biden and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau gather in Mexico from January 9 to 11 as part of the 10th North American Leaders' Summit. The agenda includes topics on the climate change, immigration, trade and economic integration, security among others. (Photo by Hector Vivas/Getty Images)

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Trump and Biden Likely Won't Shake Hands at Debate, Prediction Market Says

Meanwhile, there's a prediction market on whether the U.K. newspaper The Guardian will correct an article unflattering to prediction markets.

Автор Sam Reynolds17 июн. 2024 г.

They didn't shake hands last time, but that was during the plague. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

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Will Trump Trounce Biden? Polymarket Traders Are Betting on It.

With a 56% chance of winning, according to the prediction market's traders, the former president has a 22-point lead over the incumbent, far bigger than what the polls indicate.

Автор Sam Reynolds11 июн. 2024 г.

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