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Prediction Markets
Trump Conviction Barely Dents His Odds of Winning Election: Prediction Markets
Plus: Polymarket traders doubt Trump will go to prison; Kalshi bettors are at odds with the CME FedWatch poll on rate cuts.
Trump Widens Lead Over With Biden (on Polymarket and PredictIt) After Courting Crypto Vote
Plus: how much longshot money was made betting on the SEC approving an Ethereum ETF?
Will RFK Jr. Debate Trump or Biden? Probably Not, Prediction Market Says
Plus: Which cat-themed memecoin will hit $1 billion first?
Peter Thiel's Founders Fund, Vitalik Buterin Back $45M Investment in Polymarket
The series B funding round comes during a breakout year for the crypto-based prediction market platform, and brings its total funding well over $70 million.
Trump and Biden Tied on Polymarket, Diverging From Polls
Other election contracts show a 35% chance of a Republican sweep of the presidency and both houses of Congress and a 27% chance Democrats control the Senate after the election.
U.S. CFTC Proposes Ban on Political Event Contracts
The U.S. derivatives regulator approved a proposed rule that punctuates a long-standing legal dispute between the agency and predictive markets platforms.
Elon Musk Will Likely Remain Tesla CEO, and Tweet Non-Stop: Prediction Markets
Also: Trump faces likely conviction, per Polymarket punters; CFTC hearing to discuss political betting ban.
Binance's CZ Will Spend Less Than a Year in Prison, Polymarket Traders Bet
Also, the CFTC wants to bar Americans from betting on elections – even though it's already illegal in most U.S. states.
Polymarket Odds Say Columbia University President Will Keep Job
Continuing pro-Palestine protests won't lead to Minouche Shafik having a fate similar to Claudine Gay, who was recently forced to resign as Harvard's president, the prediction market signals. Plus: Kalshi bettors don't think Taylor Swift will break her record.
Free Money? Polymarket Bet Pays 8.7% if China Doesn't Invade Taiwan
Betting against an invasion on the prediction market may yield almost 7x as much as Taiwan government bonds. Plus: Mideast turmoil barely changes U.S. presidential odds.
