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Prediction Markets

Markets

Trump-Harris Debate: Polymarket Shows Slim Odds of Crypto Mention

Traders see only a 17% chance that Donald Trump will say "crypto" or "bitcoin" and just 13% for Kamala Harris.

By Marc HochsteinSep 10, 2024

PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - SEPTEMBER 09: Final preparations are made in the spin room prior to the ABC News Presidential Debate on September 09, 2024 at the Convention Center in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Democratic presidential nominee, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump will face off in their first debate tomorrow evening at the Constitution Center. (Photo by Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)

Policy

Kalshi's U.S. Election Markets Delayed Until Friday at Earliest

The judge in the prediction market's court case against the CFTC has called a hearing Thursday over the regulator's motion for a two-week delay.

By Marc HochsteinSep 9, 2024

GREENSBURG, PENNSYLVANIA - AUGUST 21: Supporters of former President Donald Trump volunteer at a Republican Party booth at the the Westmoreland Fair, handing out lawn signs and registering voters, August 21, 2024 in rural Westmoreland County, Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania is deeply divided politically, with the urban centers at either end of the state supporting the Democratic Party, and large sections of the rural communities enthusiastic for a second Donald Trump victory.(Photo by Andrew Lichtenstein/Corbis via Getty Images)

News Analysis

Kamala Harris Will 'Win' First Debate With Trump, Polymarket Traders Are Betting

Also, there are now prediction market contracts about other prediction market contracts.

By Sam ReynoldsSep 9, 2024

DETROIT, MICHIGAN - SEPTEMBER 02: Flanked by labor union leaders, Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris speaks to union workers during a campaign event on September 02, 2024 at Northwestern High School in Detroit, Michigan. Harris is scheduled to host another event in Pennsylvania later in the day. (Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images)

Policy

U.S. Election Betting Delay Would Be 'Devastating' to Kalshi, Firm Says

The prediction market site "has staked its future on ... these markets," it told a court, pushing back against the CFTC's motion for a two-week wait.

By Marc HochsteinSep 9, 2024

Clock ticking

Policy

CFTC Pleads With Judge to Block Kalshi Election Contracts for 14 Days

The agency says it can't make "an informed decision" about whether to appeal the judge's decision in Kalshi's favor until it knows her as-yet-unpublished rationale.

By Marc HochsteinSep 7, 2024

DENVER, COLORADO - MARCH 5: An election judge holds "I Voted" stickers while collecting drive-thru ballots on March 5, 2024 outside the Highland Recreation Center in Denver, Colorado. 15 States and one U.S. Territory hold their primary elections on Super Tuesday, awarding more delegates than any other day in the presidential nominating calendar. (Photo by Marc Piscotty/Getty Images)

Policy

Kalshi Cleared to Offer Congressional Prediction Markets in Victory Against CFTC

With two months to go before the election, the U.S.-regulated platform may now get a sliver of the 2024 political betting bonanza that's been dominated by crypto-based rival Polymarket.

By Marc HochsteinSep 6, 2024

ATLANTA, GEORGIA - MAY 21: A 'Wait Here To Vote' sign is seen in a polling location as cvoters check in to cast ballots on May 21, 2024 in Atlanta, Georgia. Among the races on the ballot in Fulton County are Scott McAfee, the Fulton County Superior Court Judge overseeing former president Donald Trump’s election interference criminal trial, and Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis, who is prosecuting the case. (Photo by Elijah Nouvelage/Getty Images)

Finance

Can Prediction Market Boom Continue After Election? This Crypto Team Has a Plan

Hedgehog Markets, which runs on the Solana blockchain, wants to do for prediction markets what Pump.fun did for meme coins: Let anyone roll their own.

By Danny NelsonAug 29, 2024

Hedgehog Markets CEO Kyle DiPeppe (Danny Nelson/CoinDesk)

Markets

Trump Unlikely to Drop Out of ABC Debate With Harris Despite Threats: Polymarket Traders

The mics probably won't be muted, traders on the crypto-based prediction market platform are signaling.

By Marc HochsteinAug 27, 2024

Bitcoin price could be tied to the outcome of the U.S. election, Jefferies said. (Danny Nelson/CoinDesk)

Markets

Did RFK Jr. Really 'Drop Out'? Polymarket Bettors Argue Over Contract Resolution

Also: Prediction market traders place bets on Telegram CEO's release from jail and on the spread of mpox.

By Sam ReynoldsAug 26, 2024

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Independent U.S. Presidential Candidate, speaks at Consensus 2024 by CoinDesk. (CoinDesk/Shutterstock/Suzanne Cordiero)

News Analysis

Kamala Harris Pulls Well Ahead of Trump on Polymarket

Plus: Will Trump mention crypto in Elon Musk interview?; don't hold your breath for OpenAI's Sora.

By Sam ReynoldsAug 12, 2024

WAYNE, MICHIGAN - AUGUST 08: Democratic presidential candidate U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at a campaign rally at United Auto Workers Local 900 on August 8, 2024 in Wayne, Michigan. Kamala Harris and her newly selected running mate Tim Walz are campaigning across the country this week. (Photo by Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)
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